Current Market Trends and Production Challenges
A fresh harvest of large cardamom is underway, but this season has been marked by a significant drop in production due to unfavorable weather in the growing regions. Despite a notable increase in production at the beginning of the season, the long-term outlook seems promising for stabilizing market prices. Presently, there is an increase in price by approximately $1,20 per kg, suggesting a stable and risk-free trend.
In the markets of Nepal, where the new crop of large cardamom was introduced, about 90% of the stock was sold quickly. In stark contrast, production in regions like Bhutan, Sikkim, and the Gangtok area has seen a drastic decrease due to recent environmental setbacks. The current supply from the Gangtok line is about 32-33% less than last year, with no old stock left. This has led to a slowdown in sales by local traders, with the newly arrived stock being of lower quality and moving off the shelves more slowly.
Market Dynamics and Future Projections
The dynamics of external trade are shifting. Regular traders are refraining from discounting their products, anticipating a rise in consumption in the upcoming season. The arrival of large cardamom in markets like Gangtok, Siliguri, Bhutan, and agricultural products in Nepal has decreased, leading to a notable price drop. After a decline of approximately $0,96 or €0,88 per kg in recent days, the price of large cardamom, which was around $12,84 or €11,82 per kg last week, is now around $13,56 or €12,48 per kg when imported from Nepal. This trend is gradually leading to a market uptick, with a recent trade recorded at around $13,32 or €12,26 per kg. Notably, all old stock has been sold, and the arrival of new stock is also substantially reduced.
In Bhutan, due to the high prices of small-grained large cardamom and a shortage of Bhopada, there is a decrease in supply. Meanwhile, in the Siliguri Gangtok line, large cardamom is available in abundance, leading to increased sales of Nepalese goods in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, and Madhya Pradesh. Moreover, due to the robust international market, a significant amount of old stock has been exported to Gulf countries following the recent surge. Considering these circumstances, the current pricing suggests a potential for future profit.
Import/Export Statistics
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