The global nuts market, with a focus on Makhana (fox nut), continues to demonstrate remarkable stability despite a notable uptick in arrivals, especially in the Katihar region of India. According to the latest market data, daily arrivals of Makhana have surged by 50–60 sacks, yet prices remain tightly range-bound, underscoring the underlying strength of demand and robust market fundamentals. Premium-quality Makhana is steadfast at $1140–$1260 per quintal, and medium quality fetches $975–$1095 per quintal, with wholesale market rates consistently reported at $61–$67 per 20 kg.
This resilience can be attributed to persisting export demand, steady domestic consumption, and expectations of active buying as the festive season approaches. For other key nut varieties, such as Brazil nuts, the European market reports unchanged pricing at €6.58 per kilogram in the Netherlands, further affirming a broader trend of price stability within the category. Weather conditions in major producing regions will be crucial in the coming weeks, but for now, sentiment remains firm, with traders projecting only limited scope for price declines even as arrivals rise. For buyers and sellers alike, vigilance remains key, but current fundamentals suggest stability is likely to persist in the immediate term.
📈 Prices
| Product | Location | Quality | Price Range | Unit | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makhana (Fox Nut) | Katihar, Bihar | Premium | 1,140–1,260 USD | per quintal | 0% | Stable, strong demand |
| Makhana (Fox Nut) | Katihar, Bihar | Medium | 975–1,095 USD | per quintal | 0% | Stable |
| Makhana (Fox Nut) | India (Wholesale) | Premium | 61–67 USD | per 20 kg | 0% | Stable |
| Brazil Nuts | Dordrecht, NL | Medium | 6.58 EUR | per kg | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals of Makhana in Katihar up by 50–60 sacks daily, with Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh maintaining inflows of 40–50 sacks across mandis.
- Demand remains stable domestically and for export markets, especially ahead of the festive season.
- Brazil nuts supply in Europe also reported steady, no major inventory movements.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- USDA & Local Reports: No major changes in reported stocks for premium or medium qualities. Export registrations supporting sentiment.
- Inventory: Stable; no significant stock build-up despite increased arrivals.
- Speculative Positioning: Low speculative interest due to stable pricing; trade flows continue as per prior months.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh: Current weather is optimal for post-harvest activities—no adverse events reported. Prospects for quality preservation remain strong.
- Brazil (for Brazil nuts): Weather remains largely favorable, with steady rainfall supporting the crucial harvest period. No signs of significant supply disruption expected in the short run.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Makhana Output (Latest est.) | Brazil Nut Output (2024 est.) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~95% of global Makhana | — | Stable/High |
| Brazil | — | 38,000 MT | Stable |
| Bolivia | — | 30,000 MT | Stable |
| Peru | — | 13,000 MT | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔵 Premium-quality Makhana: Maintain positions, export demand remains solid. Prices expected to remain steady, with only minor corrections ($2.5–$3.5/20kg) possible if arrivals accelerate further.
- 🔵 Medium-quality: Limited downside; consider buying on dips for end-users and processors.
- 🟠 Brazil nuts: European prices unchanged; watch currency movement and South American weather for future direction.
- 🟢 Seasonal traders: Utilize expected festive demand for short-term bullish positioning, but monitor arrivals and local weather closely.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Region | Current Price | Forecast Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makhana (Premium) | Katihar, India | 1,140–1,260 USD/quintal | Steady, with minor softness possible ($1,130–1,255) | Stable/Neutral |
| Brazil Nuts | Dordrecht, NL | 6.58 EUR/kg | 6.55–6.60 EUR/kg | Stable |
