Steady Currents in the Global Rice Market: Price Stability Prevails Amid Weather and Policy Uncertainties

The global rice market is navigating through a period of notable stability, with major export prices flat and futures showing minimal movement. Both short-term calm and underlying uncertainties are at play: while weather patterns across Asia and policy stances from key exporters remain in focus, robust inventories and steady demand are tempering volatility. As of July 2025, offers from leading producers like Vietnam and India signal no major changes in FOB prices, underscoring a wait-and-see sentiment among market participants.

This cautious equilibrium is mapped against expectations of steady global stocks and an outlook of modestly rising global production, despite localised risks such as delayed monsoon rains and sporadic drought conditions. Traders are closely watching crop development in South and Southeast Asia, political manoeuvres regarding export restrictions, and speculative positioning in Chicago futures. Although no sharp catalysts have emerged, the rice market remains primed for rapid reaction should weather swing or policy shifts alter the demand-supply equation. In the following report, we break down the latest price dynamics, fundamental drivers, and weather outlooks to help industry professionals and informed stakeholders make confident decisions in this complex, globally intertwined market.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

• CBoT Rice Futures (US-Cent/cwt) (as of 4 July 2025):

Contract	Closing Price (US-Cent/cwt)	Weekly Change (%)	Open Interest	Sentiment
Jul 25	12.61	-0.04	82	Neutral
Sep 25	12.93	-0.27	8,813	Neutral
Nov 25	13.26	+0.11	528	Stable/Firmer
Jan 26	13.51	-0.04	169	Firm
Mar 26	13.69	0.00	2	Stable
May 26	13.86	0.00	5	Stable
Jul 26	13.92	0.00	5	Neutral

• Physical Export FOB Prices (EUR/ton) (Vietnam & India, as of 4 July 2025):

Origin	Type	Price (EUR/ton)	Weekly Change
Vietnam	Red	0.89	0.00
Vietnam	Paper Dried	1.95	0.00
Vietnam	Long, White 5%	0.60	0.00
Vietnam	Jasmine	0.62	0.00
India	Basmati (Organic)	1.91	0.00
India	Non-Basmati (Organic)	1.61	0.00
India	All Golden, Sella	1.05	0.00
India	All Steam, 1121	0.97	0.00

Sentiment across exchanges and physical markets is largely neutral, reflecting caution and strong inventories.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global Inventories: World stocks remain high after record harvests in 2023/24; no significant supply shortfalls are reported for 2024/25.
• Key Exporters: India’s export restrictions are still in effect for some rice types, but not further tightened. Vietnam is benefiting from stable Chinese demand and diversified buyers in Africa and the Middle East.
• Major Importers: African and Near East countries continue to drive demand, offsetting slower buying from some Asian neighbours.
• USDA Reports: Latest reports indicate minor upward revisions to US and global production, but projected ending stocks remain robust.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds are largely neutral or modestly net long in Chicago, with no aggressive directional bets.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• Global Production (2024/25): Projected at 518 million tonnes (milled, unchanged week-on-week)
• Top Producers: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam
• Exporters: India, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, US (India leads, but volumes are constrained by export policy limits)
• Importers: Nigeria, China, Philippines, EU, Côte d’Ivoire
• Stock/Use Ratio: Healthy at roughly 35% for 24/25 (historically above average)

☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Southeast Asia: Monsoon progression in India is slightly delayed in the east, prompting some local fears about late planting in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, but improved rainfall in central and southern rice belts is easing anxiety.
• Vietnam: Mekong Delta weather remains favourable for late summer crop; minor localised dryness is reported, but not yet yield-threatening.
• Thailand: Early planting has benefited from normal rains; watch for possible dry spell in northeast provinces over the coming weeks.
• US Delta: Mostly beneficial weather for the US southern rice crop, with some heat stress reported, but good subsoil moisture.
• Summary: No major weather threats on the immediate horizon, but vigilance is required as monsoon unpredictability persists.

🌏 Global Stocks & Production Table

Country	Production (milled, mln t)	Exports (mln t)	Stocks (mln t)
China	146.5	1.5	98.4
India	128.0	18.0	38.5
Vietnam	28.5	7.5	4.4
Thailand	19.9	8.2	5.3
US	7.3	3.0	1.5
Nigeria	5.0	0.0	0.6

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Sellers: Take advantage of steady prices to secure forward contracts; hedge with options against potential harvest shocks in Asia.
• 📌 Buyers: Maintain normal procurement pace; monitor Indian government signals for any possible export resumption or further restriction in mainline categories.
• 📌 Traders: Range trading strategies are suitable; no strong trend in sight, but monitor speculative flows for breakouts linked to weather headlines.
• 📌 Risk: Primary short-term risk lies in weather volatility in India and Vietnam; longer-term, watch US dollar swings for impact on Asian export competitiveness.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges & FOB)

Location/Contract	Today	1 Day	2 Days	3 Days
CBOT Sep 25 (US-Cent/cwt)	12.93	12.91–12.96	12.89–12.98	12.88–13.00
Vietnam Long, White 5% (EUR/ton FOB)	0.60	0.60	0.60	0.59–0.61
India Basmati (EUR/ton FOB)	1.91	1.91	1.91	1.91

Expect calm trade in the coming days. Short-term swings are possible on weather-related headlines, but the base case is sideways movement.