Steady on Support: Wheat Market Holds Firm Amid Limited Arrivals and Government Activity

The wheat market is navigating a period of unusual stability anchored by robust government procurement and subdued supply-side pressures. With daily arrivals in key trading centers such as Rajkot, Himmatnagar, and Gondal remaining notably sparse—1,000 to 1,800 quintals—the market has found support at current price levels, and speculative activity is minimal. Professional traders attribute current wheat values almost entirely to public sector buying initiatives, which have effectively shielded the market from more pronounced downside moves.

Across various quality grades, prices have remained firm. Typical mill-quality wheat fetches $388–$394 per ton, while premium and ‘super’ qualities command up to $398–$399 per ton. Internationally, the mood remains muted but firm, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures largely unchanged, and millers and end-users report a similar steadiness. Notably, over the past week, wheat prices have risen modestly by 0.71% on the domestic front—an uptick that is directly related to steady procurement and the restrained pace of new arrivals.

Market participants generally agree: as long as government procurement continues at this prevailing pace and fresh arrivals remain limited, prices are set to retain their current buoyancy. However, should new inflows expand, downward price adjustments could soon follow. In the immediate term, the wheat market’s fate is bound closely to the decisions and pace of public buying programs.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Market/Exchange	Grade & Quality	Location	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Rajkot (Spot)	Standard	Rajkot	$390–$396/ton	Stable	Supported
Himmatnagar (Spot)	Standard	Himmatnagar	$389–$395/ton	Stable	Supported
Gondal (Spot)	Standard	Gondal	$391/ton (premium higher)	Stable	Supported
CBOT (Futures)	Protein min. 11.50%	Chicago	€0.23/kg	+€0.01	Neutral/Firm
Euronext (Futures)	Protein min. 11.00%	Paris	€0.29/kg	+€0.01	Mildly Bullish
UA (Kyiv, Spot)	Protein min. 11.50%	Kyiv	€0.24/kg	Unchanged	Steady
UA (Odesa, Spot)	Protein min. 9.50-11.50%	Odesa	€0.22–€0.26/kg	+€0.01	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Government procurement is dictating domestic price dynamics, providing a safety net.
• Market arrivals remain limited, keeping open market supply tight.
• CBOT and Euronext futures show slight upward momentum, reflecting global tightness and supportive weather forecasts.
• Speculative activity is subdued, with traders deferring to intervention-led cues rather than open market fundamentals.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• USDA Reports: Indicate a slight tightening in global ending stocks for 2025 due to weather issues in key exporters (US, Russia).
• Global Inventories: Remain historically tight for another season, especially in the EU and Black Sea.
• Domestic Stockpiles (India): Healthy but gradually eroded as procurement picks up and arrivals stay muted.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money still largely neutral in wheat futures, suggesting limited risk appetite.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Plains: Recent rain has alleviated drought conditions but some heat stress is forecast for the coming week, potentially trimming yield outlooks.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Ample soil moisture but localized dryness in southern Russia could impact spring wheat yields if it persists.
• EU (France, Germany): Mostly favorable, with occasional storms improving soil profiles; harvest progress is advanced.
• India: Stable, not in active harvest season; procurement and buffer management dominate headline risks.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	Production (2024/25, mt)	Stocks (2024/25, mt)	Change y/y (%)
USA	49.0	15.5	-2%
EU	130.5	10.7	+1%
Russia	86.0	14.8	-4%
Ukraine	21.0	3.9	-2%
India	112.0	13.2	-1%
China	137.0	137.7	Unch.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor government procurement announcements closely; any slowdown may pressure prices.
• Watch for significant changes in arrivals or transport disruptions, particularly in Black Sea/EU regions.
• Maintain hedge positions—prices are at risk of a pullback if fresh arrivals increase abruptly.
• Bullish sentiment is reinforced while arrivals stay thin and weather poses background risks.
• End-users: Consider staggered buying to avoid chasing localized price spikes if procurement persists.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Today	+1 Day	+2 Day	+3 Day	Trend
CBOT (USD/bu)	€0.23/kg	€0.23/kg	€0.23/kg	€0.23/kg	Sideways/Firm
Euronext (EUR/t)	€0.29/kg	€0.29/kg	€0.29/kg	€0.29/kg	Stable
UA (Kyiv/Odesa, FCA/FOB)	€0.22–0.26/kg	€0.22–0.26/kg	€0.22–0.26/kg	€0.22–0.26/kg	Bullish-Balanced

Overall, the wheat market remains in a holding pattern—firm, supported, and highly responsive to government procurement trends and weather risks in global breadbaskets.