Steady Prices, Cautious Demand: Millet Market Holds Firm as Weather Shapes the Outlook

The millet market remains steady this week, underpinned by stable supply conditions and cautious demand fundamentals across major producing and consuming regions. In China, market participants report that mainstream millet prices are holding firm as of mid-June 2025. Because remaining grain stocks account for approximately 30.57% of total production and are well-distributed between grassroots and intermediaries, the overall available supply is considered adequate. However, regional price disparities persist, with lower prices in certain areas prompting farmers to withhold sales in hopes of improved margins.

Weather plays a notable role: recent rainfall in key regions such as Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi has aided crop development, but larger day-night temperature differences are slowing millet growth compared to historical averages. On the demand side, only a moderate recovery is observed among processors in Shanxi, while procurement remains lacklustre in Shandong, Hebei, and other provinces. Many processors, already holding inventory, continue to buy conservatively. Acquisition costs stay firm across several regions, yet weak downstream appetite caps any upward momentum. Internationally, Ukrainian and Polish origins maintain a price advantage, but European demand shows similar sluggishness.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Purity/Certification	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	CN	Beijing	99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.80	0.80	2025-06-17	Stable
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	CN	Beijing	99.95%	No	FOB	0.70	0.72	2025-06-17	Weak
Millet seeds, hulled, yellow	UA	Odesa		No	FOB	0.19	0.19	2025-06-12	Stable
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	UA	Odesa	99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	2025-06-12	Stable
Millet seeds, raw, yellow	PL	Kiełczygłow	98%	No	FCA	0.30	0.32	2025-05-28	Slightly Weaker

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: China retains significant millet stocks (30.57% of 2024/25 total production), ensuring stable supplies in the near term. However, hesitation among farmers to sell, especially in regions with depressed prices, reduces immediate market liquidity.
• Weather Impact: Recent rainfall in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and other regions benefits millet growth, but greater daily temperature swings are slowing plant development compared to previous years.
• Demand: There are signs of small-scale recovery in Shanxi, with processors increasing shipments, but demand from Shandong, Hebei, and other regions remains tepid. Ample inventories and limited orders are curbing procurement activity.
• International Market: Ukraine and Poland continue to offer millet at competitive prices to Europe and the Middle East, yet demand remains similarly subdued, resulting in price stability or marginal declines.

📊 Fundamentals

• Stock-to-Use: China’s millet stock ratio is healthy, providing a strong buffer against seasonal volatility.
• Production Trends: With beneficial rains and managed inventories, expectations for new crop potential remain moderate, pending a clearer yield outlook later in the season.
• Processing Margins: Firm acquisition costs combined with reluctant procurement by millers keep processing margins under pressure. Farmers’ restrained selling adds uncertainty to future flows.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China (Inner Mongolia, Shanxi): Recent precipitation boosts soil moisture, aiding millet during critical vegetative growth. However, abnormal daily temperature variations slow overall progress, suggesting the developmental timeline may lag the 5-year average.
• Ukraine: Conditions remain mostly favourable with adequate moisture, though periodic cool spells could affect final yield formation.
• Poland: Sporadic showers maintain promising crop prospects. No immediate weather threat reported, but continued monitoring is warranted.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est, 1000t)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est, 1000t)	Key Trends
China	2,040	680	Stable, robust stocks
India	10,700	2,600	Slightly higher acreage; export ban in force
Ukraine	220	75	Consistent output
EU	560	110	Stable demand, manageable stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• China’s market: Prices expected to remain steady in the short term, with upside limited by sluggish downstream demand and sufficient local inventories.
• Origin competition: Ukrainian and Polish offers, at lower price points, create headwinds for Chinese and domestic processors aiming for export markets.
• Farmers and traders should stay alert to further weather developments, especially in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, as persistent cool spells could delay harvest and affect quality.
• Processors are advised to manage inventory actively and consider opportunistic buying if prices soften further on slow demand.
• Exporters should watch for possible demand upticks in the Middle East or North Africa, which could support prices in late Q3-Q4 2025.

⏳ 3-day Regional Price Forecast (FOB/FCA, EUR/kg)

Origin	Product	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
China (Beijing)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	0.80	0.79–0.80	Stable/Soft
Ukraine (Odesa)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	0.19	0.18–0.19	Stable
Poland (Kiełczygłow)	Millet seeds, raw, yellow	0.30	0.29–0.30	Slightly Weak