The Chinese bean market continues to exhibit remarkable resilience, with prices holding largely steady despite subtle shifts in regional supply and cautious demand trends. Market participants report that the supply-demand balance for black beans remains largely unchanged, with only minor price concessions observed in select localities as sellers seek to stimulate movement. Notably, price quotes for green-cored black beans are being referenced rather than fixed, reflecting a market where actual transaction prices are subject to direct negotiation between buyers and sellers.
Across major production areas, on-farm stocks are virtually depleted, and traders’ inventories are also running low, indicating a market environment focused on digesting existing supplies rather than building new positions. Meanwhile, the pace of demand for commercial-grade beans remains subdued, with both producing and consuming regions largely following prevailing market trends rather than exhibiting strong directional moves. This environment of tight supply but lacklustre demand has resulted in a narrow trading range and limited price volatility.
As the market awaits clearer signals from upcoming weather developments and potential policy shifts, participants are advised to remain vigilant, especially with the new crop season on the horizon and global weather patterns expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the next phase of price action.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Mung beans
organic
99.5%
FOB 1.45 €/kg
(from CN)
Mung beans
3.8 mm up
99.5%
FOB 1.37 €/kg
(from CN)
Kidney beans
small, black, organic
99.5%
FOB 1.52 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price | W/W Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mung beans | Organic | CN | Beijing | 1.45 | 1.47 | -0.02 | Neutral/Soft |
| Mung beans | 3.8 mm up | CN | Beijing | 1.37 | 1.38 | -0.01 | Neutral/Soft |
| Kidney beans | Small, black, organic | CN | Beijing | 1.52 | 1.50 | +0.02 | Stable/Firm |
| Kidney beans | Large, white, organic | CN | Beijing | 3.41 | 3.39 | +0.02 | Stable/Firm |
| Kidney beans | Large white | CN | Beijing | 3.32 | 3.30 | +0.02 | Stable/Firm |
| Kidney beans | Dark red, organic | CN | Beijing | 2.43 | 2.45 | -0.02 | Neutral |
| Kidney beans | Dark red | CN | Beijing | 2.35 | 2.32 | +0.03 | Stable/Firm |
| Kidney beans | Black | CN | Beijing | 1.47 | 1.45 | +0.02 | Stable/Firm |
More offers for Mung beans (Organic) | Mung beans (3.8 mm up) | Kidney beans (Small, black, organic)
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: On-farm stocks and trader inventories are extremely limited in major producing areas, especially for black beans and kidney beans. Most market activity is focused on the digestion of old inventories, with little sign of new supply entering the pipeline.
- Demand: Commercial-grade bean demand remains slow, with both production and consumption regions adopting a wait-and-see approach. Transactions are largely negotiated case-by-case, especially for specialty beans like green-cored black beans.
- Market Feedback: Price differences are mainly due to differing seller attitudes toward moving stock, rather than fundamental shifts in supply or demand.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- USDA & Crop Reports: No major surprises from recent global bean acreage and production reports. China’s planted area for beans is stable to slightly lower, with no significant expansion reported.
- Inventories: Global bean inventories remain adequate but are tightening in Asia due to slow replenishment and cautious trading behavior.
- Speculative Positioning: With limited volatility and a lack of speculative interest, most price action is driven by physical market fundamentals rather than financial flows.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- China (Northeast, North China Plain): Recent weather has been favorable for late planting and crop establishment, with adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures. However, the coming week is expected to bring scattered showers and slightly above-normal temperatures, which could support early crop growth but may require monitoring for localized flooding risk.
- Brazil: Dry conditions persist in some southern bean-growing areas, potentially impacting winter bean yields. No immediate threats to global supply, but continued dryness may warrant attention.
- UK/EU: Mild and mostly dry weather is aiding crop maturation and harvest progress; no major disruptions expected.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. (est, 000 t) | 2024/25 Stocks (000 t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1,420 | 180 | -1.5% |
| Brazil | 1,150 | 120 | -3.2% |
| UK | 310 | 35 | +0.8% |
| EU (excl. UK) | 1,900 | 210 | +0.5% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟢 For Sellers: Consider gradual sales of remaining inventories, as tight stocks are providing price support. Avoid aggressive discounting unless necessary for cash flow.
- 🟡 For Buyers: Secure forward contracts for specialty beans where supply is particularly tight. Monitor local offers closely for short-term price concessions.
- 🔵 For Traders: Watch for weather-driven volatility in the coming weeks, especially in Northeast China and Brazil. Limited speculative activity means physical market shifts will drive price changes.
- ⚪ General: Maintain a flexible approach, as the market could react quickly to any weather or policy surprises ahead of the new crop season.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Region/Exchange | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mung beans (organic) | Beijing (FOB) | 1.45 | 1.44–1.46 | Stable |
| Kidney beans (black, organic) | Beijing (FOB) | 1.52 | 1.51–1.53 | Stable |
| Kidney beans (large, white, organic) | Beijing (FOB) | 3.41 | 3.40–3.43 | Stable/Firm |
