🌨️ Storms Boost Snowpack – Almond Market Tightens as Crop Nears Completion 🌨
📍 Snowpack recovery and limited supply point to tighter inventories – Market prices remain firm as the 2025/26 crop outlook develops
California’s weather turned dramatically in mid-February, bringing back-to-back storms to the Sierra Nevada. The snowpack surged from 66% to 92% of normal, significantly improving water supply prospects for the summer. Meanwhile, the bloom is now complete, and early observations suggest nutlet growth will be moderate, with regional variation and bee pollination concerns persisting.
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📌 Market Highlights:
✔ Snowpack recovery to 92% improves irrigation outlook.
✔ February shipments at 215 million lbs – slightly below expectations.
✔ 2024/25 crop to finish near 2.7 billion lbs, tighter than estimated.
✔ Shortages of smaller Cal varieties are now evident.
✔ Uncommitted inventory below 1 billion lbs – availability shrinking.
📊 1. Market Overview: Prices & Developments
💰 Current Almond Prices (FAS/FOB California, USD/lb)
| Product | Price (USD/lb) | Trend (M/M) |
|---|---|---|
| STD-5% | 2.80 | ↗ +0.15 |
| NPX 27/30 | 3.00 | ↗ +0.15 |
| NOX 20/22 | 3.15 | ↗ +0.15 |
| IND Extra 25/27 | 2.96 | ↗ +0.16 |
📌 Note: Prices firm due to tightening supply and strong international demand. Growers are hesitant to sell beyond current comfort levels.
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Factors
🌨️ Weather
- Snowpack is now at 92% of normal (vs. 66% at the end of January).
- California relies on snowpack for ~40% of its water supply.
- March storms have significantly improved the reservoir outlook for summer.
🌸 Bloom Summary
- Bloom completed statewide.
- Nonpareil bloom: Average to below average.
- Independence & Monterey: Very good.
- Pollination concerns due to bee hive shortages.
- Current sentiment: The 2025/26 crop may mirror 2.7 billion lbs, not a record.
📦 3. Shipments, Sales & Inventory
February Shipments
| Category | 2025 (M lbs) | 2024 (M lbs) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | 56.2 | 58.8 | -4.4% |
| Export | 158.8 | 162.3 | -2.2% |
| Total | 215.0 | 221.1 | -2.8% |
- Shorter month affected volumes – March is expected to rebound slightly.
- Inventories tightening → harder to find usable material across sizes and grades.
Crop Receipts
- Total as of Feb: 2.68 billion lbs
- Expected final: ~2.7 billion lbs, down 100M lbs vs. objective estimate.
Sales & Commitments
| Category | Volume (M lbs) | % Change YoY |
|---|---|---|
| February Sales | 221 | +3.0% |
| Commitments | 577 | -8.5% |
- Sales mostly to export markets (longer lead times).
- Domestic buyers were cautious and adopted “wait-and-see” during bloom.
- Uncommitted Inventory: 965 million lbs (+4% YoY), now below 1 billion lbs.
🔮 4. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days)
| Product | Current Price | Forecast Range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| STD-5% | 2.80 | 2.82 – 2.90 | ↗ Rising |
| NPX 27/30 | 3.00 | 3.02 – 3.10 | ↗ Rising |
| NOX 20/22 | 3.15 | 3.15 – 3.20 | 🔄 Firm |
| IND Extra 25/27 | 2.96 | 2.97 – 3.05 | ↗ Rising |
📌 Limited availability of certain Cal varieties and small sizes is expected to drive prices higher in Q2.
⛅ 5. 14-Day Weather Outlook
📍 California Central Valley
- 🌡️ Daytime: 16–22 °C | 🌙 Night: 5–9 °C
- 🌧️ Precipitation: Mild showers expected, soil conditions remain good.
- ✅ Ideal for post-bloom nutlet development.
📍 Export Markets (India, EU)
- 🇮🇳 India: Warm, dry – supportive of strong Inshell demand.
- 🇪🇺 Europe: Stable demand, gradually rebuilding inventory.
📉 6. Long-Term Stock Trends
| Season | Global Ending Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 1.65 | – |
| 2022/23 | 1.57 | -4.8% |
| 2023/24 | 1.50 | -4.4% |
| 2024/25e | 1.45 | -3.3% |
📌 Conclusion: Inventory drawdown continues globally. The market is increasingly supply-sensitive.
🔍 7. Conclusion & Recommendations
Key Takeaways
- ❄️ Snowpack improved – water supply secured, aiding long-term grower confidence.
- 📦 February shipments are slightly under expectations, but the outlook for March is stable.
- 🔒 Inventory tightening, with shortages of smaller sizes already visible.
- 💬 Crop 2025/26 is unlikely to exceed the current year, based on early observations.
Recommendations
📈 For Sellers
- Consider offering selectively to capture firm prices.
- Monitor Q2 logistics closely – demand pressure will grow.
📉 For Buyers
- Secure forward coverage now – inventory flexibility will narrow.
- Expect price firmness to persist unless the new crop outlook improves significantly.
📅 Next Position Report: April 11, 2025
📈 Market Focus: Nutlet development, grower commitments, Q2 export pace.
🚀 Stay ahead with expert updates from the global almond trade.