Market Analysis Report: Corn
General Situation and Current Trends
- The corn market has shown resilience with gains in Chicago for two consecutive days, primarily driven by robust export demand.
- Despite a stronger US dollar which generally limits gains, the market was supported by a favorable weekly export report from the USDA, highlighting a net sales increase for the 2024/2025 season.
- The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a global increase in corn production for the 2025/26 season to 1.269 billion tonnes from 1.217 billion tonnes in the previous season, with consumption also expected to rise.
- Concerns about reduced yields in Argentina due to heat and drought have been offset by adjustments in the projected planting area, maintaining the harvest forecast at 49 million tonnes.
Current Prices and Relevant Historical Comparisons
- As of the latest data, Corn in Odesa remains stable at $0.21 per unit.
- Yellow feed grade corn in Odesa has seen a slight increase to $0.27 from $0.26.
- Popcorn in Buenos Aires is priced at $0.81, maintaining its previous price point.
- Yellow corn in Paris increased marginally to $0.26 from $0.25.
- Organic corn starch in New Delhi has risen to $2.05 from $2.02, reflecting a slight uptick in demand for organic products.
Inventory Levels, Production Numbers, Export/Import Trends
- Global end stocks of corn are projected to rise from 274 million tonnes to 280 million tonnes by the end of the 2025/26 season.
- Major importers for the 2024/2025 season include Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Taiwan, indicating strong demand in these regions.
- The adjustments in Argentina’s production forecasts due to climatic challenges highlight the vulnerability of corn yields to weather conditions.
14-Day Weather Trend for Growing Areas
Continued monitoring of weather patterns is crucial, especially in Argentina’s northwest and northern Cordoba, where recent heatwaves and drought conditions have threatened yield forecasts. The next two weeks are critical for assessing potential impacts on the final output.
3-Day Price Forecast and Market Expectations
- Prices are expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend, influenced by strong export demand and tightening global supplies.
- Market participants should watch for any changes in the US dollar’s strength, as this could impact export competitiveness.
- Further updates from Argentina regarding the impact of weather on crop yields will be crucial for near-term price movements.
Note: All data and trends are current as of the last update and subject to change based on upcoming market conditions and new economic data.