Sugar Beet Crisis: Plunging Prices and Factory Closures Threaten EU Market

The European sugar beet market is navigating one of its most disruptive periods in decades. After a prolonged period of price support, the bottom has dropped out from under sugar values: European spot prices have crashed by 38% since December 2023, and international benchmarks are now at a five-year low. Raw sugar traded at 14.4 US cents/lb in Oct/Nov 2025—down 25–35% year-on-year—mirroring the pressure from global surpluses and aggressive speculative trading. Five European factories are set to close in 2025, with further shutdowns looming, as overproduction in Brazil, India, and Thailand collides with growing exports into Europe at zero tariffs thanks to loopholes in EU trade rules. While Germany’s economic association for sugar (WVZ) reports good yields at 81.8 t/ha and a total output over 28.5 million tonnes, this bounty is a double-edged sword with a shrinking market. EU beet acreage is already down 11% for 2025/26, but large stocks and persistent cheap imports—especially from Brazil—continue to undercut prices. In this climate, sugar is fast becoming a ‘bitter’ commodity; industry stakeholders are demanding urgent EU intervention to stave off further collapse.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous (EUR/kg)	Change (%)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45, EU Cat. II)	LT	Marijampole	0.44	0.45	-2.2%	17-Dec-2025	Bearish
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45, EU Cat. II)	LT	Marijampole	0.45	0.45	0.0%	17-Dec-2025	Weak
Icing sugar	CZ	Vyškov	0.65	0.65	0.0%	17-Dec-2025	Stable
Sugar granulated (Kat EU2)	PL	Kalisz	0.43	0.43	0.0%	17-Dec-2025	Bearish
Sugar granulated (Fine 400–850)	PL	Kalisz	0.45	0.47	-4.3%	16-Dec-2025	Sharp Drop
Sugar granulated (KAT EU2)	PL	Kalisz	0.43	0.45	-4.4%	16-Dec-2025	Slumping
Sugar granulated (white-crystal Icumsa-45)	PL	Warschau	0.48	0.50	-4.0%	16-Dec-2025	Bearish
Sugar granulated (KAT EU2 Czech)	CZ	Kalisz (PL)	0.46	0.46	0.0%	16-Dec-2025	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU beet acreage shrunk by 11% (2025/26), but strong growing conditions led to record average yields (81.8 t/ha in Germany).
• Estimated 28.5 million tonnes of beets harvested in the EU, with increased output contributing to oversupply.
• World sugar prices down 25–35% y/y, largely due to substantial surpluses from Brazil, India, Thailand.
• 470,000 tonnes of raw and 135,000 tonnes white sugar have entered the EU duty-free by August 2025—440,000 tonnes from Brazil alone.
• Five European sugar factories closing this season, with more closures possible—and German facilities so far protected but not immune.

📊 Fundamentals

• Overproduction: Global surpluses drove world and EU prices to unsustainable levels.
• Stockpiles: High end-season stocks expected to keep a lid on prices.
• Imports: Duty-free flows from Brazil are disrupting market balance and undermining EU producers, aided by IPP loopholes.
• Policy Uncertainty: The European sugar sector’s lobbying to curb imports—so far unanswered—adds uncertainty for market participants.
• Acreage Cuts: While intended to balance the market, acreage reductions have been offset by exceptional yields.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Europe: 2025’s favorable weather helped boost yields (e.g., Germany). Outlook in key sodden regions for late December suggests mild conditions and moderate precipitation—crucial for soil replenishment but likely not disruptive to current stocks.
• Brazil & Thailand: Above-average rainfall projected for the main producing regions, supportive for crop growth, but not signaling additional risk for the upcoming months.
• India: Monsoon receded earlier than average, but sugar cane prospects remain robust; government intervention possible if local prices fall too steeply.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025/26 Production (M tonnes)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (M tonnes)	Export/Import Note
Brazil	43.6	8.7	Strong exports, top global supplier
India	32.8	6.5	Exports plateau, ample stocks
Thailand	10.5	2.0	Recovery year, solid exports
EU	17.2	3.8	Rising imports, declining exports
China	9.6	2.2	Large net importer

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Focus on cost control. Reassess planting intentions for 2026/27; explore forward contracting if available.
• Buyers & Food Processors: Take advantage of multi-year lows to lock in supply or negotiate favorable contracts.
• Traders: Market sentiment remains bearish—volatility risk is high and further price weakening is possible if no policy response is forthcoming.
• Policy Watch: Monitor EU and WTO updates regarding trade restrictions or intervention, which may spark sudden upswings.

🕒 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Product/Origin	Current (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Sentiment
Sugar granulated, PL (Kalisz)	0.43	0.43	0.42	0.42	Bearish
Sugar granulated, LT (Marijampole)	0.44	0.44	0.43	0.43	Bearish
Icing sugar, CZ (Vyškov)	0.65	0.65	0.65	0.65	Stable

Key Insight: Market fundamentals and policy inertia currently point to continued downside risk for EU sugar beet prices, particularly if factory closures accelerate and duty-free imports remain unchecked.