Sugar Beet Market Outlook: Price Retreats Amid Improved Supply and Mild Weather

The sugar beet market is facing a period of moderate weakness, with futures prices on ICE (No. 5 Sugar, USD/t) showing multi-session declines across contracts through the 2026–28 window. The December 2026 contract, for example, closed at $417.70 per ton (–0.53%), reflecting modest bearish sentiment. Similarly, spot prices for granulated sugar in Europe have trended down or stabilized, signaling improved supplies and a less tense physical market.

Despite this pressure, the overall environment remains dynamic. EU and Polish granulated sugar prices range from €0.43–€0.48/kg (FCA), with a recent softening as new beet processing boosts inventories. Weather developments are positive: unseasonably mild and moist autumns in Europe support strong beet yields, while the absence of drought in the Black Sea and southern Russia suggests robust acreage next spring. Globally, recent USDA data point to a recovery in inventories after last season’s tightness, particularly as India and Brazil step up production. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties—such as energy and freight costs—remain lurking risks.

As market participants look forward, sugar’s trajectory hinges on ongoing European campaigns, energy pricing, and weather trends into spring planting. We expect a period of further market adjustment with limited threats to supply.

📈 Prices

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mar 2026	422.30	-0.17%	Neutral/Bearish
May 2026	418.90	-0.38%	Bearish
Dec 2026	417.70	-0.53%	Bearish
Dec 2027	432.70	-0.51%	Bearish

Product	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45)	LT	Marijampole	0.44	0.45
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45)	LT	Marijampole	0.45	0.45
Icing sugar	CZ	Vyškov	0.65	0.65
Sugar granulated	PL	Kalisz	0.43	0.43
Sugar granulated (Fine)	PL	Kalisz	0.45	0.47
Sugar granulated KAT EU 2	PL	Kalisz	0.43	0.45
White-crystal, Icumsa-45	PL	Warschau	0.48	0.50
Sugar granulated KAT EU 2 (Czech)	CZ	Kalisz	0.46	0.46

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU beet processing is ongoing, with high yields reported in France, Germany, and Poland following mild autumn conditions.
• India and Brazil have increased cane and beet sugar output, boosting global inventory projections after a constrained 2024 season.
• Import demand from North Africa and the Middle East remains stable, supporting baseline export flows from the EU and CIS.
• Speculative funds have trimmed long positions on ICE as physical supply anxiety eases.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Dec 2025: World sugar ending stocks projected +4% year-on-year, driven by Brazil and India.
• European Commission: Acreage intentions for 2026 signal stable-to-slightly increased sugar beet planting.
• Global refined sugar physical premiums have narrowed, matching the drop in futures prices.
• Energy (natural gas, oil) prices have stabilized, reducing sugar plants’ margin pressure but leaving some risk from volatility.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Western/Central EU: Consistent rainfall and above-average temperatures reinforce strong beet development and late-season growth.
• CEE, Ukraine, Black Sea: No drought threats as of December; topsoils are moist, supporting 2026 spring planting.
• Brazil’s Center-South: Harvest underway in mostly favorable conditions, minimal weather disruptions expected short-term.

🌎 Country Production & Inventories

Country	2025/26 Production (Mt)	2025/26 Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	40.2	6.5
India	34.5	7.1
EU	17.8	2.2
Russia	6.8	1.5

📌 Trading Outlook & Advice

• Hold fresh long positions; the oversupply risk outweighs potential squeeze rallies in Q1-Q2 2026.
• End-users and refiners: Use current price dip to secure spring-summer requirements.
• Monitor CEE planting and EU weather—any sharp change could rekindle price upside.
• Watch for trade policy changes in India/Brazil which may influence exportable surplus.

📆 3-day Price Forecast

• ICE March 2026 Sugar No.5: $420–424/t (steady/soft)
• EU Reference Spot (PL, FCA): €0.43–€0.45/kg (sideways/soft)
• Polish White Sugar (Warschau): €0.46–€0.48/kg (mildly weaker)