The sugar beet market is experiencing renewed bullish momentum, with international raw sugar prices rising firmly and spot rates in key European regions holding at elevated levels. The latest ICE Zucker Nr.5 (white sugar) futures closed strongly, marking multi-session gains on the back of tightening global supply while physical prices in Poland remain robust. Recent contract closings show values pushing above $420/t for most 2026 maturities, and EU market prices for granulated sugar hold in the €0.45–0.50/kg range. This reflects increased buying interest as winter approaches, concerns about Brazilian and Indian cane output, and nervousness about Ukrainian and Russian beet yields for the upcoming seasons. Weather disruptions, robust export demand, and tight EU stock levels after last season’s drought remain key fundamentals supporting prices. Speculative funds continue their net-long positioning, banking on further supply-side risks into 2026.
In summary, sugar market participants face a complex landscape: a strong seasonal rally, global uncertainties over top exporter crops, and an increasingly weather-driven outlook for the European beet campaign. Traders should closely watch near-term weather events, trade policy shifts, and USDA/EU Commission updates to navigate opportunities and risks as volatility persists.
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FCA 0.47 €/kg
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FCA 0.45 €/kg
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Sugar granulated
Kat EU2
FCA 0.45 €/kg
(from PL)
📈 Prices
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Change (%) | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | 426.10 | +1.71% | 6,270 |
| May 2026 | 422.70 | +1.66% | 3,551 |
| Aug 2026 | 418.20 | +1.58% | 830 |
| Oct 2026 | 417.20 | +1.41% | 385 |
| Dec 2026 | 419.50 | +1.22% | 247 |
| Mar 2027 | 423.00 | +0.92% | 222 |
| May 2027 | 425.00 | +0.56% | 89 |
| Aug 2027 | 427.00 | +0.23% | 228 |
| Oct 2027 | 429.40 | +0.07% | 27 |
| Dec 2027 | 434.00 | +0.05% | 8 |
| Product | Origin | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar granulated, Fine 400 to 850 | PL | 0.47 | 0.45 | 2025-12-08 |
| Sugar granulated, KAT EU 2 | PL | 0.45 | 0.45 | 2025-12-08 |
| Sugar granulated, Kat EU2 | PL | 0.45 | 0.45 | 2025-12-08 |
| Sugar granulated, white-crystal, ICUMSA-45 | PL | 0.50 | 0.52 | 2025-12-08 |
| Sugar granulated, KAT EU 2 Czech | CZ | 0.46 | 0.46 | 2025-12-08 |
| Sugar granulated, ICUMSA 45, EU Cat. II | LT | 0.45 | 0.45 | 2025-12-02 |
| Icing sugar | CZ | 0.65 | 0.65 | 2025-12-02 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Global Output Risks: India, the world’s second-largest producer, faces a weak monsoon, reducing cane yields. Brazil’s Center-South harvest is robust but may be capped by logistical snarls.
- EU Situation: The European market remains tightly supplied after last year’s drought, with inventories below the 5-year average. Ukrainian and Russian beet crop prospects are uncertain due to weather disturbances and possible trade disruptions.
- Demand: EU and global demand has stayed strong post-summer, with refineries and food manufacturers active in spot and forward markets amidst consumer stock-building.
- Speculative Flows: Managed money remains net-long, with trading funds boosting exposure to sugar amid ongoing supply-side risks.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA & EU Reports: Recent USDA projections highlight a possible global deficit for 2025/26 driven by more limited South Asian supply and stagnant EU output due to planted area stagnation.
- Inventories: The EU’s ending stocks are forecast below historical norms; India’s closing stocks are cut by 17% year-on-year amid export restrictions.
- Comparisons: Last available report showed flat prices; this month’s report marks a 1–3% increase across most products and contracts.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Europe: The latest ECMWF weather model points to wetter-than-normal winter in Central/Eastern Europe. This boosts soil moisture for spring 2026, favorable for beet germination if flooding is managed.
- Brazil: Drier conditions in southern Brazil risk mild yield losses but the main Center-South belt reports stable progress.
- India: Poor monsoon recovery signals lower 2025 harvest volumes.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (mln t) | 2024/25 Closing Stocks (mln t) | Stock Change YoY (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 43.8 | 6.7 | +5% |
| India | 32.5 | 6.1 | -17% |
| EU | 15.4 | 2.1 | -3% |
| Thailand | 11.6 | 2.7 | +1% |
| Russia | 6.1 | 0.7 | -4% |
| Ukraine | 1.3 | 0.1 | -20% |
📆 Trading Outlook
- Bullish bias: New highs in futures, tight stocks, and export restrictions in India favor further gains in the short term.
- Monitor weather: Watch for updated regional rainfall and frost risk in Europe, and drought persistence in India and Brazil.
- Physical premiums: EU spot physical prices maintain a strong premium over ICE futures.
- Volatility risk: Policy changes, especially from Indian and Brazilian governments, can trigger sharp market moves.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE No.5 (Mar 2026) | USD 426.10/t | USD 428–430/t | Bullish |
| PL Granulated Sugar (FCA) | EUR 0.47/kg | EUR 0.47–0.48/kg | Stable to Slightly Stronger |
| PL White Crystal (ICUMSA-45/FCA) | EUR 0.50/kg | EUR 0.50/kg | Stable |
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