Sugar Cane Market in Focus: Global Output Rises, Prices Consolidate, Weather Risks Loom

After an extended period of price volatility and production swings, the global sugar cane market stands at a crossroads mid-2025. While this past year saw a decline in prices driven by robust Brazilian output and a surprise rebound in Indian and Thai production, persistent weather risks and shifting fundamentals keep the market in a delicate balance. Brazil’s dominant role as the world’s largest producer has been solidified, with output forecasts indicating a production plateau. At the same time, India’s monsoon-driven recovery is injecting fresh supply into global markets, offsetting prior shortfalls but increasing the risk of swelling stockpiles. Meanwhile, Europe and Southern Africa grapple with their own local challenges – from drought-impacted beet yields to rising domestic production costs – all impacting global trade flows. Despite these developments, consumers and traders remain wary. Speculative interest is moderate, weather uncertainty hovers over key regions, and government biofuel policies continue to divert some cane to ethanol. Expectations for the next quarter reflect further consolidation: unless an acute weather shock or policy change occurs, the market is likely to tread water, with any gains met by strong producer selling. In this context, market participants must watch for subtle shifts in fundamentals and the ever-present threat of climate complications. Read on for a detailed analysis of price trends, supply and demand dynamics, production data, weather outlooks, and the trading outlook in the global sugar cane market.

📈 Sugar Cane Prices & Market Trends

Contract	Closing Price (US-Cent/lb)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Mar 2026	14.82	-0.88	Bearish
May 2026	14.44	-0.97	Bearish
Jul 2026	14.46	-0.83	Bearish
Oct 2026	14.80	-0.68	Bearish
Mar 2027	15.50	-0.52	Stable

 

Contract	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
May 2025 (No.5)	462.94	-0.34	Consolidation
Aug 2025 (No.5)	445.06	-0.25	Consolidation

 

Region	Product	Latest Price (€/kg)	Market Sentiment
EU	Standard White Sugar	0.52-0.54	Stable/Neutral
GB	ICUMSA 32/45 (bulk)	0.55-0.56	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global production is forecast to rise to 189.3 million tonnes for 2025/26, up 8.6 million tonnes YoY.
• Major increases from India (+25% YoY to 35.3 Mt) and modest growth from Brazil (+1 Mt to 44.7 Mt).
• Consumption growth is expected (+2.5 Mt), notably in Asia and Africa.
• Exports could decline as EU and Thailand reduce shipments amidst local supply shifts.
• World ending stocks likely rise by 7% as India and China accumulate reserves.
• Brazilian ethanol programs flexibly divert up to 51% of cane, while India’s bioethanol push is accelerating sugar diversion, capping export availability.
• Speculative money is moderately net long, holding steady as funds await Indian export decisions and firm monsoon progress.

📊 Fundamentals: Regional Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2025/26 Production (Mt)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	43.7	44.7	9.0
India	28.7	35.0	4.9
EU	15.4	15.0	1.6
Thailand	10.1	10.3	2.9
USA	7.7	7.5	1.7

• Brazil: Remains the largest exporter, output rising modestly with strong ethanol demand limiting sugar availability.
• India: Record rebound expected; government controls and high domestic use keep exports in check.
• EU: Production falls on lower beet acreage; stocks remain ample but margins for expansion are thin.
• Thailand: Modest gains; remains a key price-sensitive exporter, but not offsetting Brazil/India shifts.

⛈️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Rainfall remains favorable in the southeast cane belt, but dryness persists in some center-south regions. Harvest progressing on schedule. Wildfires and drought risk linger for Q3/Q4.
• India: Monsoon onset is timely and strong in Maharashtra and Karnataka, supporting planting and yield resurgence. Early field reports confirm healthy replanted cane.
• EU: Drought conditions in France and Germany threaten beet yields for autumn harvest, potentially reducing domestic output.
• Thailand: Normal to moderately wet conditions; supporting expected recovery, though heavy rainfall could affect harvest logistics in Q3.

📌 Key Market Drivers

• USDA global forecast, India’s monsoon notices, Brazil’s official field reports, and speculative flows.
• Ongoing biofuel policy changes – India/Thailand ethanol blending and Brazil’s flex-crush potential.
• Timing of India’s government export quota announcements and EU’s trade policy moves.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Lock in prices opportunistically if further monsoon gains or harvest disruptions threaten. Use hedges to protect against downside risks in case of global surplus confirmation.
• Buyers/End Users: Maintain core cover for Q3-Q4, but avoid large spot purchases until clearer weather and crop updates emerge. Monitor Indian government export decisions for impact on global balance.
• Traders: Exploit volatility via spread trading between short and long contracts. Monitor speculative flows for sharp moves following new Indian/EU policy signals.
• Investors: Market likely to consolidate near-term; avoid aggressive long positioning unless weather or policy shocks emerge.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Date	ICE No.11 (US-Cent/lb)	ICE No.5 (EUR/t)	EU Spot (€/kg)
Day 1	14.70–14.90	462–465	0.52–0.54
Day 2	14.65–14.85	462–464	0.52–0.54
Day 3	14.60–14.80	461–463	0.52–0.54

Market sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, pending further yield and policy clarity. Volatility likely to increase with any major weather event or regulatory shift. Keep monitoring the evolving situation.