Sugar Market Outlook: Price Correction, Supply Gluts & Weather Risks in Focus

The global sugar market is entering a phase of correction as prices on the ICE futures exchange continue to trend downward, driven by improved output prospects, especially from key producers like Brazil and India. After experiencing notable volatility for much of 2025 due to erratic weather, port disruptions, and fluctuating global inventories, prices have now entered a consolidation phase—albeit with underlying risks persisting in several fronts. The March 2026 ICE contract closed at USD 422.60/ton, marking a decline of 0.71% from the previous session, and forward months show a similarly bearish tilt. Spot prices for granulated sugar in Europe, including top offers from Lithuania, Great Britain, and Germany, remain stable in local currency terms, with marginal movement observed week-on-week. Meanwhile, the market continues to assess the impact of weather (notably in Brazil and Thailand), shifting policy in export markets, and macroeconomic cues affecting demand from confectionery, ethanol, and industrial buyers. What does this mean for traders, food manufacturers, and procurement specialists? The interplay between robust supply fundamentals and undiminished demand leaves room for tactical positioning, but attention is warranted as weather patterns and currency volatility could further impact costs. For a closer look at specific regional offers, check out the curated deals below.

📈 Market Prices: ICE Raw Sugar Futures & European Granulated Sugar

Contract	Closing Price (USD/t)	Weekly Change (%)	Volume	Sentiment
Mar ’26	422.60	-0.71%	7,416	Bearish
May ’26	420.00	-0.64%	4,180	Bearish
Aug ’26	416.10	-0.50%	1,286	Bearish
Oct ’26	415.60	-0.38%	377	Bearish
Dec ’26	418.70	-0.31%	79	Bearish

 

Origin	Location	Delivery (FCA)	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev Price
Lithuania	Mirijampole	ICUMSA 45, 0.2-1.2 mm	0.48	0.48
Great Britain	Norfolk	ICUMSA 32, 0.3-0.6 mm	0.46	0.46
Germany	Berlin	ICUMSA 45, 0.4-0.65 mm	0.48	0.52

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazil’s Strong Output: Record Center-South cane crush and high ATR (sugar concentration) underpin growing global stocks.
• India’s Policy Swings: Government discouragement of exports continues, but abundant monsoon rains have improved 2025/26 output estimates.
• Thailand Recovery: 2024 drought reduced exports; 2025 forecasts improve on better rainfall outlook.
• EU Stocks Adequate: Local production stabilizes after spring, but imports compete with domestic European pricing.
• Speculative Positioning: Recent CFTC data show reduced net-long positions as funds pare bets amid heavier supply estimates.

📊 Fundamentals Update

• USDA June 2025 Report: Global production is forecast at 187.5m tons (+2% YoY), with ending stocks at 43.1m tons.
• Higher Exports: Brazil expected to ship >34m tons, capping price rallies.
• Consumption: Steady growth in Asia and MENA; EU demand soft amid economic uncertainty.
• Net Importers: China, Indonesia remain the largest; Egypt, Sudan show higher import needs after adverse weather.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Major Producers

• Brazil (CS): Widespread rains expected in the coming week, but fieldwork interruptions remain low; yield outlook stable to positive.
• India: Monsoon coverage is on track; planting ahead of last year, risk of late-season dry spells remains.
• Thailand: Return to normal precipitation helping ratoon crops recover; output expected up YoY.
• EU: Mixed: France and Germany report favorable conditions, but wetness in southeast Europe could slow beet harvest.

🌐 World Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (mt)	2025/26 Forecast (mt)	2025/26 Stocks (mt)
Brazil	44.3	45.0	10.2
India	33.6	35.1	9.8
Thailand	7.7	9.2	2.0
EU	15.5	15.7	2.9
China	10.3	10.4	7.3

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Producers: Consider hedging at current ICE levels—downtrend may persist but pockets of support likely around USD 415/t.
• For Traders: Watch for volatility spikes triggered by weather headlines and Indian policy changes.
• For Buyers: Forward coverage recommended for H1 2026 as downside may be limited beyond Q1/Q2, especially if weather risk resurfaces.
• Speculators: Reducing long exposure advisable; downside risk remains as fundamentals weigh.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
ICE Futures (Mar ’26)	USD 422.60/t	USD 420.00 – 424.00/t	Range-bound/Bearish
EU Spot (LT, FCA Mirijampole)	EUR 0.48/kg	EUR 0.47 – 0.48/kg	Stable
EU Spot (GB, FCA Norfolk)	EUR 0.46/kg	EUR 0.45 – 0.46/kg	Stable

Short-term risks are tilted downward, but anticipate higher volatility as new weather data emerges.