Sugarcane Market: Maharashtra Output Surge Meets Steady Global Futures, Kolhapur Shines

Sugarcane production in Maharashtra for the 2025–26 season is reaching its peak, with a robust surge in both output and recovery rates, especially compared to the previous year. The rapid closure of sugar mills—more than half have already finished crushing—signals that the state’s production is in its final stage, providing market participants with a near-complete snapshot of the season’s results. This season’s total sugarcane crushed stands at a substantial 1005.1 lakh metric tonnes (LMT), resulting in 950.31 lakh quintals of sugar as of March 3, 2026. The average recovery rate has also ticked up to 9.45%, with the Kolhapur division outperforming the rest of the state at an impressive 11.01%. These high recovery rates, alongside a significant increase in overall output compared to the previous year, are likely to weigh on market sentiment locally.

Globally, futures prices for raw sugar (ICE Nr.11) are displaying mild gains and range-bound action amid ample Indian supply, but remain supported by international demand and trade flows. As market participants digest the final numbers from one of the world’s key sugar-producing regions, the interplay between Maharashtra’s record-breaking output and steady international pricing will shape trading outlooks, forward contracts, and risk management strategies. In this context, weather patterns, crop closing rates, and the timing of mill operations become crucial for anticipating future price dynamics.

📈 Prices

Contract	Last Close (US-Cent/lb)	Change	Market Sentiment
ICE Sugar Nr. 11 May 26	13.93	+0.02 (+0.14%)	Neutral/Bearish (ample supply)
ICE Sugar Nr. 11 Jul 26	13.93	+0.03 (+0.22%)	Neutral/Bearish
ICE Sugar Nr. 11 Oct 26	14.25	+0.02 (+0.14%)	Stable
ICE Sugar Nr. 11 Mar 27	14.91	+0.01 (+0.07%)	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Maharashtra’s cane crushing is nearing completion with 113 of 210 mills closed, and sugar output already at 950.31 lakh quintals.
• Average sugar recovery in Maharashtra: 9.45%. Last year for the same time frame: 9.38%.
• Kolhapur division stands out with 231.07 lakh quintals produced, recovery at 11.01%.
• Pune: 210.72 LMT crushed, 9.81% recovery. Solapur: 213.87 LMT, 8.55% recovery.
• Total cane crushed this season: 1005.1 LMT (vs. 823.31 LMT last year at same stage).
• Global trade flows remain steady, with India’s potential for export increases, though higher internal stocks could limit upward price movement internationally.

📊 Fundamentals

• Maharashtra output exceeds previous season by over 180 LMT crushed and improved recovery rates.
• Out of 210 mills, cooperative (103) and private (107) sectors are both fully engaged, but majority are closing or have closed.
• Current season shows stronger fundamentals for state output but signals downward pressure potential for India export offers.
• International prices (ICE Sugar Nr. 11) have responded with a muted uptick, reflecting absorption of India’s supply surge.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Regional Impacts

• Weather in Maharashtra has largely remained favorable for crushing, enabling high recovery rates.
• Forecasts for the coming week show no major adverse events expected for the major cane growing belts, supporting a clean finish to the season.
• Forward looking, watch for any late-season rainfall or unseasonal heat which could marginally impact field-to-mill transport but unlikely to affect overall output this late in the cycle.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• India, Brazil, and Thailand remain the top sugar producers. Maharashtra’s higher output will contribute significantly to India’s closing stocks.
• Compared to last season, both crushing and production are trending higher in India, while Brazil’s Center-South region is also expanding output after favorable weather and investments in mill efficiency.
• Global stocks are projected to remain comfortable, though any future export restrictions by the Indian government could trigger volatility later in 2026.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Ample Maharashtra supply likely to cap upward price moves in the near term on Indian and global bourses.
• Monitor government export policies closely—any move to restrict will be bullish for ICE contracts.
• Consider short-term hedges for physical sellers with exposure to further downside as mills close and output data finalizes.
• Buyers can seek value in deferred contracts (Jul, Oct 26) if risk of Indian restrictions remains low.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Spot/Front Month Price	Forecast (Next 3 Days)	Sentiment
ICE Sugar Nr. 11 (US-Cent/lb)	13.93	13.85 – 14.05	Stable/Soft (due to robust Maharashtra supply)