The global sunflower market is at a crossroads, shaped by a remarkable expansion in planted acreage and divergent regional dynamics. As farmers in the northern hemisphere wrap up sowing for the 2025 crop, Bulgaria and Romania have made notable progress, while Ukraine and Russia continue to face delays due to persistent challenges. Meanwhile, a surge in sunflower plantings is unfolding in China, the USA, and other countries, driven by attractive market conditions and the crop’s profitability. The USA stands out, with expectations for a nearly 50% increase in sunflower acreage compared to last year—an unprecedented jump that could reshape global supply flows.
Despite favorable sowing weather and a dip in new crop offer prices, the market remains tight for current crop stocks. Packers are reluctant to release remaining inventory, betting on further price gains before the new harvest arrives. This tug-of-war between expanding future supply and present scarcity is fostering volatility and opportunity across the value chain. The coming months will be decisive as weather, geopolitical risks, and shifting demand patterns play out in real time. Market participants must remain agile, as both upside and downside risks are in play for the 2025 sunflower campaign.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Sunflower seeds
black
98%
FOB 1.38 €/kg
(from CN)
Sunflower kernels
hulled, confection
99.95%
FOB 0.87 €/kg
(from CN)
Sunflower kernels
hulled, bakery
99.95%
FOB 0.92 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices: Sunflower Market Snapshot
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seeds | Black, 98% | CN | Beijing | FOB | 1.38 | -0.02 | Softening (new crop offers) |
| Sunflower kernels | Hulled, confection 99.95% | CN | Beijing | FOB | 0.87 | -0.02 | Softening |
| Sunflower kernels | Hulled, bakery 99.95% | CN | Beijing | FOB | 0.92 | +0.02 | Firm |
| Sunflower kernels | Hulled, bakery 99.98% | UA | Dnipro | FCA | 1.04 | +0.07 | Rising |
| Sunflower seeds | Black, 98% | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.56 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Sunflower seeds | Black, 98% | BG | Sofia | FCA | 0.46 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Sunflower kernels | Hulled, bakery 99.99% | BG | Berlin | FCA | 1.08 | +0.02 | Rising |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Acreage Surge: USA sunflower plantings projected up nearly 50% YoY; China and other Asian countries also expanding area.
- Eastern Europe: Bulgaria & Romania sowing ahead of schedule; Ukraine & Russia lagging due to ongoing logistical and geopolitical challenges.
- Current Crop Tightness: Stocks are low; packers holding inventory, expecting price rises before new crop harvest.
- Demand: Steady global demand for kernels and oil, with food and snack industries driving consumption.
- Speculative Positioning: Market participants are cautious, with some short-term bearishness on new crop but bullishness on old crop stocks.
📊 Fundamentals & Key Drivers
- USDA Reports: Indicate strong US acreage and potential for record production if weather holds.
- Global Inventories: Depleting old crop stocks keep spot prices supported; new crop supply could weigh on prices post-harvest.
- Regional Challenges: Ukraine and Russia may see reduced output due to late sowings and operational difficulties.
- Profitability: Favorable margins for sunflower relative to competing crops have encouraged expansion in the USA and China.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Eastern Europe: Bulgaria and Romania enjoying favorable early-season moisture; positive for yield potential.
- Ukraine & Russia: Mixed conditions—some delays from excess rain and cool temps; risk of uneven emergence and yield drag.
- USA: Plains and Midwest regions mostly favorable; minor dryness in the Northern Plains, but not yet critical.
- China: Mild, stable weather aiding strong establishment of new sunflower fields.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (Mt) | YoY Change | Stocks Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 14.5 | -5% | Depleting |
| Russia | 16.0 | -4% | Depleting |
| EU (Bulgaria, Romania, etc.) | 11.5 | +8% | Rising |
| USA | 1.6 | +50% | Rising |
| China | 3.0 | +15% | Rising |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-Term: Old crop stocks are tight—expect firm prices until late summer. Spot buyers should secure needs early.
- Medium-Term: Watch for new crop harvests in the USA and EU; increased supply could pressure prices from Q4 2025.
- Risk Factors: Weather volatility in Black Sea and US Plains, ongoing logistics and geopolitical risks in Ukraine/Russia.
- Bullish Triggers: Any adverse weather in major producing regions or escalation of Black Sea disruptions.
- Bearish Triggers: Excellent US/EU harvests and smooth logistics could weigh on prices post-harvest.
- Action: Sellers: Consider forward sales for new crop. Buyers: Hedge old crop needs, monitor new crop developments closely.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange/Location | Product | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast (3-Day) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Beijing (FOB) | Sunflower seeds (black, 98%) | 1.38 | 1.36 – 1.40 | Slightly Bearish |
| Ukraine | Odesa (FCA) | Sunflower seeds (black, 98%) | 0.56 | 0.55 – 0.57 | Stable |
| Bulgaria | Sofia (FCA) | Sunflower seeds (black, 98%) | 0.46 | 0.45 – 0.47 | Stable |
| USA | Midwest (Spot) | Sunflower seeds | 1.05 (est.) | 1.03 – 1.07 | Volatile |
