The sunflower market is experiencing dynamic shifts in 2025, driven by rising global consumption and notable adjustments in both production and pricing landscapes. Global sunflower oil consumption reached 68 million tonnes in 2024, recording a 2.4% increase compared to the previous year. This expansion in demand is underpinned by significant consumption in key markets like China, the United States, India, Russia, and Turkey. Interestingly, even as physical consumption rises, the overall market valuation for sunflower oil declined by 7.9% to $116.5 billion, suggesting a recent period of lower prices and perhaps more competitive supply dynamics.
Producers are responding: 2025 is expected to see a further increase in sunflower seed production, with forecasters citing a boost up to 56.5 million tonnes. Export routes remain dominated by Turkey and Ukraine, which collectively account for 35% of world sunflower oil exports. Looking ahead, market experts project moderate but steady annual consumption growth of 1.1% up to 2035, with prices likely increasing by around 2% per year, reaching an estimated $144.3 billion global market value.
On the supply side, the influx of seed and oil from key exporters is balancing robust demand, albeit with shorter-term price corrections observed in major producing and trading hubs. Weather continues to play an outsized role, as draft forecasts for summer 2025 point to mixed conditions in Black Sea and Eastern European growing zones—a key variable for both traders and processors in months ahead.
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Sunflower seeds
black
98%
FOB 0.56 €/kg
(from UA)
Sunflower kernels
meal
FOB 0.55 €/kg
(from UA)
Sunflower seeds
black
98%
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Delivery | Location | Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Date | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seeds (black, 98%) | UA | FOB | Odesa | 0.56 | 0.57 | 2025-06-05 | -0.01 | Neutral/Bearish |
| Sunflower kernels (meal) | UA | FOB | Odesa | 0.55 | 0.55 | 2025-06-05 | 0 | Steady |
| Sunflower seeds (black, 98%) | UA | FCA | Kyiv | 0.54 | 0.55 | 2025-06-05 | -0.01 | Neutral/Bearish |
| Sunflower seeds (black, 98%) | UA | FCA | Odesa | 0.53 | 0.55 | 2025-06-05 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Sunflower seeds (black, 98%) | CN | FOB | Beijing | 1.33 | 1.38 | 2025-06-04 | -0.05 | Weakening |
| Sunflower kernels (bakery, 99.98%) | UA | FCA | Dnipro | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2025-05-27 | 0 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Consumption: 68 million tonnes (2024), up 2.4% YoY. Projected to reach 77 million tonnes by 2035.
- Major Consumers: China, USA, India, Russia, Turkey.
- Major Exporters: Turkey & Ukraine with 35% global share. Russia remains a vital supplier, with 1.8 million of 3.5 million tonnes imports sourced there.
- Production: Expected increase to 56.5 million tonnes (2025 forecast).
- Market Value: $116.5 billion (2024), with a projected rebound toward $144.3 billion (2035).
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Despite increased consumption, the value of the global sunflower oil market declined in 2024, indicating downward price pressure likely due to larger than expected supply.
- Export flows from the Black Sea region remain strong, helped by improved logistics and stable harvests in Ukraine and Turkey.
- USDA and market analysts see potential for continued growth in both supply and demand through the next decade, though price increases may be moderate (~2% p.a.).
- Speculative activity has remained subdued, with most positioning focused on physical market fundamentals rather than short-term volatility.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Effects on Yields
- Ukraine/Black Sea: Variable rainfall in early June; moderate soil moisture—above average prospects if mid-summer is not too dry.
- Russia: Favourable early season, but risk of localized dryness in southern zones.
- Balkans/Bulgaria: Mild temperatures and good rainfall in May/June bode well for healthy yields.
- China: Slightly above normal temperatures, but no critical stress observed yet.
Weather risk remains moderate; watch for mid-June updates, especially in Eastern Europe and Russia.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (Mt) | Global % | Stock/Carryover (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 16.5 | ~29% | 3.2 |
| Russia | 15.0 | ~26% | 2.9 |
| Turkey | 2.1 | ~4% | 0.4 |
| EU | 10.2 | ~18% | 1.6 |
| China | 4.9 | ~9% | 1.2 |
| India | 2.6 | ~5% | 0.6 |
| Others | 5.2 | ~9% | 0.8 |
Total global estimated production: ~56.5 Mt in 2025 (projected).
📌 Trading Outlook & Actionable Advice
- Monitor weather developments in the Black Sea and Balkans—any drought could quickly shift market sentiment bullish.
- Buyers: Consider forward coverage through Q3 2025 while prices remain soft, especially for quality seeds from Ukraine and Bulgaria.
- Producers: Lock in sales on rallies, as ample global supply could cap any price spikes.
- Watch for changes in export policy, especially in Turkey and Ukraine.
- Refiners/traders: Diversification advised—demand for alternative vegetable oils remains strong.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Product | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odesa, UA | Sunflower seeds (FOB) | 0.56 | 0.54 – 0.56 | Slightly Bearish/Flat |
| Kyiv, UA | Sunflower seeds (FCA) | 0.54 | 0.53 – 0.54 | Slightly Bearish |
| Beijing, CN | Sunflower seeds (FOB) | 1.33 | 1.31 – 1.33 | Weakening |
Summary: Near-term price movement is expected to be mostly sideways to slightly weaker, unless weather disruptions occur in major producing regions. Demand remains robust, but ample supply and subdued speculative activity are keeping prices in check.
