Sunflower Market Analysis: Prices Slip Amid Kazakh Harvest Progress, Cautious Outlook Prevails

The global sunflower market is entering a period of increased volatility, shaped by sustained harvest momentum in Kazakhstan and stable but cautious activity across other key regions. Over the past week, Kazakhstan’s sunflower prices came under pressure, falling to USD 484/tone—a drop of nearly USD 13 as reported by Grain and Oilseeds. Meanwhile, oilseed markets for flax and rapeseed remained steady, highlighting diverging trends within the oilseed complex. Analysts advise growers against stockpiling, as there is little expectation for short-term price recovery given ample supply and muted demand. Elsewhere, Ukrainian and eastern European sunflower offers indicate a market in wait-and-see mode, with prices holding in narrow ranges.

As harvest nears its conclusion in Central Asia, the influx of supply is likely to keep a lid on price rebounds. Weather across the Black Sea remains a crucial swing factor, with the market closely watching regional forecasts for any late shocks that could impact yields or logistics. Against this backdrop, traders, processors, and farmers must carefully calibrate their strategies, balancing the risks of further declines with the potential for stabilization as the market absorbs the new crop. Below is a comprehensive analysis, including price trends, fundamentals, and actionable outlooks for the sunflower sector.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Seed Markets

Origin	City	Type	Delivery Terms	Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price (€/kg)	Date
Ukraine	Odesa	Black, 98%	FCA	0.57	0.57	2025-09-26
Ukraine	Kyiv	Black, 98%	FCA	0.59	0.59	2025-09-26
Ukraine	Odesa	Black, 98%	FOB	0.55	0.54	2025-09-25

Weekly Change: Moderate declines in Kazakhstan; stable in Ukraine and EU origination. Market sentiment: Bearish short-term, stabilization possible as harvest concludes.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Kazakhstan: Sunflower price down by ~USD 13/tonne (~2.6%) week-on-week; harvest reaches 1 million tonnes as of September 29.
• Ukraine: Market offers stable but caution prevails ahead of harvest wrap-up.
• EU (Bulgaria, Romania): Prices stable, reflecting both domestic balance and moderate export demand.
• China: Sunflower market unchanged, suggesting limited new demand impulses.
• Farmer behavior: Analysts recommend avoiding stockpiling, indicating little upside for near-term prices.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Comparisons

• Kazakhstan (2025 Campaign): 1 million tonnes oilseeds already harvested, showing robust progress.
• Russia/Ukraine: Remain largest global exporters. Harvest conditions near completion; monitoring for potential logistic disruptions or quality downgrades.
• Global Summary: Balance sheets are comfortable, but traders remain alert to weather-driven surprises and policy changes (export quotas, tariffs, etc.).
• Other Oilseeds (Kazakhstan Spot): Flax USD 513/tonne (steady), Rapeseed USD 492/tonne, Safflower (new crop) USD 346/tonne, Soybeans USD 452/tonne.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Generally favorable weather, limited rainfall interruptions, supporting efficient harvest completion. No major adverse events forecasted for the next week.
• Kazakhstan: Weather supportive for ongoing harvest. Minimal frost risk; dry conditions ensure good field access.
• Bulgaria & Romania: Normal seasonal weather; no extremes reported.

Yield Effect: Weather remains supportive; late-season rains could slightly boost yields but logistical flow is prioritized.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Estimated 2025 Production (Mt)	Stock Position (Mt)
Ukraine	~15.5	Comfortable
Russia	~16.0	Elevated
Kazakhstan	1.1	Ample (new crop arriving)
EU (Bulgaria, Romania)	~9.2	Steady
China	Small (import-focus)	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Farmers: Avoid stockpiling, as new-crop supplies are still absorbing into the market and price recovery is not imminent.
• Buyers/Processors: Consider gradual replenishment near current levels, as downside is limited but upward potential is capped by strong supply flows.
• Importers (EU/China): Monitor logistics and quality of new-crop arrivals, adjust purchases in line with harvest progress and shipping conditions.
• Traders: Sideways to slightly bearish trend expected in October; watch for any weather or policy shocks.
• Speculators: Rangebound trading likely; risk premium minimal amid abundant supplies unless geopolitical or weather surprises develop.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Odesa, UA (FCA)	0.57	0.56 – 0.57	Stable/Weak
Kyiv, UA (FCA)	0.59	0.59	Stable
Sofia, BG (FCA)	0.46	0.45 – 0.46	Weak
Kazakhstan, Spot	USD 484/t	USD 482 – 485/t	Weak