Sunflower Market in Flux: Rising Supplies and Falling Prices as Sowing Surges in Black Sea Region

The global sunflower market is currently navigating a period of heightened volatility, with significant shifts in both supply and pricing dynamics. The completion of sunflower sowing in Ukraine, supported by favourable weather, has led to an accelerated pace of farmer sales, as many are unwilling to wait for higher price targets. This influx of Ukrainian sunflower oil onto the world market is occurring against a backdrop of ample inventories and tepid demand from key importers, leading to persistent downward pressure on prices.

Export prices for sunflower oil from Ukraine have declined by $10/t in the past week, with similar trends observed for sunflower meal and seed prices. The competitive landscape is further complicated by increased supplies of rapeseed and soybean oil in the EU, as well as stable or slightly lower price points for Russian sunflower oil. Meanwhile, the weather outlook remains supportive for crop development in Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan, with the potential for expanded sunflower acreage as lost winter crops are replanted. This combination of robust supply prospects and lacklustre demand suggests that the market may face continued softness in the near term, particularly as forward prices come under additional pressure from anticipated increases in planted area and ongoing global stockpiles.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.57	0.58	-0.01	Bearish
Sunflower kernels (meal)	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.56	0.56	0.00	Neutral
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	China	Beijing	FOB	1.36	1.38	-0.02	Bearish

Sunflower oil (UA, Black Sea ports): $1,110–1,115/t (↓ $10/t)
Sunflower oil (DAP Germany/Macedonia): $1,120–1,150/t
Sunflower oil (RU, FOB): $1,120–1,125/t
Sunflower oil (CIF Mumbai): $1,200/t
Sunflower meal (Black Sea, export): $215–220/t (↓ $5/t)
Sunflower meal (CIF France): $248–250/t

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: 3.9 million ha sown (77% of plan), with favourable weather supporting completion and crop development. Sowing area may rise 10–15% in early June.
• Russia & Kazakhstan: Also increasing sunflower acreage by replanting lost winter crops.
• EU: Larger rapeseed and soybean oil supplies are weighing on sunflower oil demand and prices.
• Global stocks: Remain significant, with limited import demand from key markets.

📊 Fundamentals

• Supply pressure: Accelerated farmer sales in Ukraine and increased sowing in the Black Sea region.
• Demand: Weak import interest, especially from the EU and Asia, due to alternative oilseed supplies.
• Inventories: High stocks in Ukraine and globally continue to pressure prices.
• Speculative positioning: Largely neutral to bearish as traders anticipate further supply increases.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Favourable weather for sowing; rains forecast for next week are expected to improve crop conditions and yield potential.
• Russia & Kazakhstan: Similar positive outlook, supporting further sowing and crop establishment.
• Impact: Improved weather is likely to boost yields and increase supply pressure for the 2025/26 season.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Sown Area (m ha)	2023/24 Sown Area (m ha)	Production Trend	Stock Trend
Ukraine	3.9 (as of May 16)	4.6	Stable to Up	High
Russia	+10–15% (est.)	n/a	Up	High
Kazakhstan	+10–15% (est.)	n/a	Up	Moderate
EU	Stable	Stable	Stable	High (oilseeds)

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued price softness for sunflower oil and meal through June due to strong supply and weak demand.
• Monitor weather developments in Black Sea region—further rains could enhance yield potential and increase bearish pressure.
• Watch for updated sowing data in early June; a 10–15% increase in acreage could trigger further price declines.
• Processors are well-covered; spot market activity may slow, but forward prices likely to remain under pressure.
• Importers may find attractive buying opportunities if prices decline further, especially for deferred contracts.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (USD/t)	Forecast Range (USD/t)	Sentiment
Black Sea (UA)	Sunflower Oil	1,110–1,115	1,100–1,120	Bearish
FOB Odesa	Sunflower Seeds	570	560–575	Bearish
FOB Beijing	Sunflower Seeds	1,360	1,350–1,370	Bearish