Sunflower Market in Flux: Russia’s Export Surge Reshapes Global Dynamics

The global sunflower market is entering a pivotal moment in the 2025/26 season as Russia ramps up ambitions to expand its share of sunflower oil exports to India and beyond. Traditional trade flows are shifting: Ukraine, long the dominant supplier to India, is directing more sunflower oil volumes toward Europe, opening the door for Russia to seize lost ground in South Asian markets. Supported by an expected record sunflower seed harvest and a deliberate move by Russian farmers to plant more sunflower at the expense of less-profitable wheat, Russia is on track for a record 5 million tons in sunflower oil exports this season—one-third of which is destined for India, the world’s largest edible oil importer. Meanwhile, India remains open to more Russian imports as private traders look for competitive pricing and reliable supply.

In parallel, sunflower product prices across key origins in Europe and Asia reflect a complex interplay of abundant supply, evolving trade policies, and regional demand. Weather remains a wildcard, especially as planting and maturing conditions in Russia and Ukraine will ultimately determine crop quality and yields. Against this backdrop, global edible oil competitors such as Argentina and Brazil are eyeing Asian opportunities, but all eyes are on the Black Sea exporters as the coming months will define price trajectories and supply security. Market participants must stay agile, reacting to fundamental signals, weather swings, and export policy adjustments shaping this dynamic market environment.

📈 Prices: Latest Sunflower Product Prices at Key Origins

Product	Type	Purity (%)	Origin	City / Country	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Update Date
Sunflower seeds	black	98%	China	Beijing/CN	FOB	1.60	+0.01	2025-10-02
Sunflower kernels	hulled, confection	99.95%	China	Beijing/CN	FOB	0.99	+0.02	2025-10-02
Sunflower kernels	hulled, bakery	99.95%	China	Beijing/CN	FOB	1.04	+0.01	2025-10-02
Sunflower seeds	black	98%	Ukraine	Odesa/UA	FCA	0.57	0.00	2025-09-26
Sunflower seeds	black	98%	Ukraine	Kyiv/UA	FCA	0.59	0.00	2025-09-26
Sunflower seeds	black	98%	Ukraine	Odesa/UA	FOB	0.55	+0.01	2025-09-25
Sunflower kernels	hulled, bakery	99.98%	Ukraine	Dnipro/UA	FCA	0.95	0.00	2025-09-25
Sunflower kernels	hulled, bakery	99.95%	Moldova	Rheinfelden Herten/DE	FCA	0.96	-0.04	2025-09-25
Sunflower kernels	hulled, bakery	99.99%	Bulgaria	Berlin/DE	FCA	1.15	-0.01	2025-09-25
Sunflower kernels	hulled, confection	99.98%	Bulgaria	Sofia/BG	FCA	1.22	-0.02	2025-09-25

Market sentiment: Neutral-to-firm in Russia/China, slightly weaker in the Balkans/Eastern Europe.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Russian expansion: Russia targets a record 5 million tons sunflower oil exports in 2025/26. Planting area is up due to strong margins versus wheat.
• Ukrainian trade shift: Ukraine increasingly prioritizes sunflower oil supplies to the EU, ceding Asian market space to Russia.
• India’s pivotal role: About a third of Russian sunflower oil exports now go to India, which welcomes diversification amid global edible oil competition.
• Competing origins: Besides Russia and Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil continue to vie for Indian and Asian market share.
• Private-sector led trade: Indian imports from Russia will be determined by competitive offers and merchant demand more than government policy.

📊 Fundamental Data & Global Stocks

• Russia: Projected record sunflower seed output and exportable oil surpluses, underpinned by favorable farm economics and strong crop conditions.
• Ukraine: Sunflower supply stable, but margins pressured by logistics and higher shipment volumes to Europe. Kernel/kernels prices are steady to soft.
• India: Import requirements remain high with edible oil stocks at a moderate-to-low level, favoring robust imports into 2026.
• Global inventories: Comfortably supplied in the Black Sea; slight tightening expected in South Asia depending on Argentinian/Brazilian crop development.

Country	2025/26 Output (est. MMT)	2025/26 Oil Exports (est. MMT)
Russia	~17	5.0
Ukraine	~14	4.2
Argentina	~3.5	0.7
EU	~10	0.4

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook for Key Regions

• Russia: Recent weather favorable for sunflower maturation in the Southern Federal District and Volga—yield prospects remain strong. Watch for early frost risk in late October.
• Ukraine: Generally adequate rainfall in late September supported yield stability; localized dryness in central/northern regions warrants monitoring as harvests progress.
• Balkans / Bulgaria / Moldova: Crop progress normal, with warmer-than-average October temperatures aiding late-planted fields.
• Weather risk: Short-term forecast shows mostly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures in Black Sea region, boosting late season fieldwork but raising fire risks.

🔍 Market Drivers & Recent Developments

• USDA Oilseeds October Report: Upward revisions to Russian output, flat to lower revisions for Ukraine and the Balkans.
• Speculative activity: Managed money remains net long on Black Sea sunflower oil futures, but with growing caution.
• Export policies: Watch for potential new export quotas or tariffs from Russia in late 2025 if domestic crushers lobby for protection.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect firm short-term price support for Russian and Chinese sunflower products, given strong demand and attractive Black Sea pricing.
• Ukrainian kernel prices could soften if logistics constraints persist; buyers should watch for possible discounts during the harvest.
• Monitor Argentinian and Brazilian weather; a large Southern Hemisphere crop could pressure prices in Q1 2026.
• Long-term: India’s growing edible oil demand and diversification away from Ukrainian supply will support robust Russian exports well into 2026.
• Traders: Use any short-term dips to secure product for Q4 delivery, especially from origins aligned with India.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Origins)

Product	Origin	Today (EUR/kg)	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
Sunflower seeds	Russia (FOB)	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.59
Sunflower kernels	Ukraine (FCA)	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95
Sunflower seeds	China (FOB)	1.60	1.61	1.62	1.64
Sunflower kernels	Bulgaria (FCA)	1.22	1.23	1.23	1.24

Forecast: Prices steady to gently firm in Russia/China, flat in Ukraine, mild support expected in the Balkans.