Sunflower Market July 2025: Processing Slump, Export Surge & Price Tension

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As the 2024/25 marketing year progresses, the sunflower market faces a complex mix of bearish and bullish indicators. Amid ongoing challenges in Ukraine—the world’s largest sunflower producer—processing volumes have continued their downward slide. June 2025 saw an estimated 1 million tons of sunflowers processed domestically, 11% below May and representing a 21% year-on-year decline for the period September to June. This hovers close to multi-year lows, accentuating the strain felt by processors from both limited supply and persistently weak margins. Yet, there’s a glimmer of optimism: Sunflower oil exports have surged in recent weeks, and expectations for July put processing at a higher 1.1–1.2 million tons.

These shifts come as the market anticipates the rapeseed harvest and awaits government decisions on potential export duties for soy and rapeseed—which could make domestic sunflower processing more attractive and further impact supply-demand balances. For participants, the market remains uneasy, caught between short-term export-driven support and long-term fundamental pressures. Weather in key Black Sea and European growing regions will be crucial in determining yield outcomes, especially as initial 2025/26 crop estimates suggest a smaller harvest. In the coming weeks, strategy will be key as processors, exporters, and traders reassess risks amid evolving government policies, maintenance shutdowns, and tighter oilseed competition.

📈 Market Prices Snapshot

Product Origin Location Type Purity Delivery Latest Price (€/kg) Weekly Change Sentiment
Sunflower seeds MD DE/Rheinfelden Herten Black 98% FCA 0.49 +0.03 Firm
Sunflower seeds BG BG/Sofia Striped 98% FOB 0.52 0.00 Steady
Sunflower seeds BG BG/Sofia Black 98% FCA 0.51 +0.02 Firming
Sunflower seeds UA UA/Kyiv Black 98% FCA 0.55 0.00 Stable
Sunflower seeds UA UA/Odesa Black 98% FCA 0.54 +0.01 Slightly bullish
Sunflower kernels UA UA/Dnipro Bakery 99.98% FCA 0.94 0.00 Stable
Sunflower kernels BG DE/Berlin Bakery 99.99% FCA 1.12 +0.04 Rising
Sunflower kernels BG BG/Sofia Confection 99.98% FCA 1.15 +0.02 Slightly bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Trends

  • Ukraine: Processing down 21% year-on-year (Sep–June), near lows not seen since 2016/17 (excl. war years).
  • Exports: Recent uptick in sunflower oil shipment due to strong demand, supporting near-term processing volumes and prices.
  • Alternative oilseeds: Processors are pivoting to rapeseed; upcoming harvest and potential export duties could disrupt flows.
  • Stock levels: Some raw seeds in storage, but low processing margins limit usage.
  • Outlook: Full season processing unlikely to exceed 12.5 Mt for 2024/25.

📊 Market Fundamentals

  • Margins: Processing profits remain thin, putting pressure on plants and dissuading capacity use.
  • Speculation: Market sentiment modestly bullish on forward oil exports, but cautious due to weak rapeseed oil prices in Europe.
  • Policy: Proposed 10% export duty for soy/rapeseed could boost domestic sunflower processing if enacted.
  • Plant maintenance: Many facilities shut down for repairs ahead of rapeseed campaign.

⛅ Weather & Harvest Outlook

  • Ukraine & Black Sea: Key regions have generally received timely rainfall in June/July. Topsoil moisture is mostly adequate, but high summer temperatures risk late-season stress.
  • Balkans/BG: Conditions remain near-normal with localized dryness. Watch for isolated heatwaves.
  • Yield potential: Average to slightly below-average yields expected for 2025/26. Heat spells in July could reduce crop size further.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country 2024/25 Production (Mt est.) Stock Situation Recent Trend
Ukraine 13.0 Tight/Declining Processing drop, robust exports
Russia 16.5 Ample Stable
EU (Top 5) 8.7 Tight Flat or slightly lower
Argentina 3.8 Moderate Stable, off-season

📌 Key Market Drivers

  • 2024/25 Ukrainian processing projected at 12.0-12.5 Mt—historic low post-2017.
  • Export pace for sunflower oil has accelerated lately, supporting processor demand for raw seeds.
  • Potential policy shift (10% export tax on rapeseed/soy) could raise domestic crushing volumes.
  • Multi-origin supply pressure: ample Russian origination, cautious EU supplies, and stable South America.
  • Weather risk: High July temperatures threaten yield potential across the Black Sea region.

🔮 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • Processors: Secure spot needs, but avoid long-term exposure until export duty policy is resolved.
  • Exporters: Maintain strong focus on short-term shipments while oil demand is robust.
  • Traders: Anticipate increased volatility around rapeseed harvest and government decisions.
  • Buyers: Consider forward coverage, especially if Ukrainian government implements export taxes or if weather turns drier.
  • Overall sentiment: Slightly bullish short-term, cautious/neutral longer term.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market Current (€) Forecast Trend 3-Day Range (€)
Ukraine FCA 0.54–0.55 Sideways/Bullish 0.54–0.56
Bulgaria FCA 0.51 Slightly up 0.51–0.53
Germany FCA 0.49 Stable 0.48–0.50