Sunflower Market Outlook: Stable Prices Amid Expanding Supply and Global Dynamics

Sunflower markets are navigating a phase marked by firm supply fundamentals and stable prices, anchored by notable investments in production infrastructure and attractive cost advantages in regions like Central Asia. The recent launch of a high-capacity seed processing facility in Kazakhstan’s Zhetysu region stands to bolster domestic supply while reinforcing the region’s role in serving both regional and export demand. Operating at one-fifth the production cost of key competitors, Kazakhstan is poised to expand its influence—potentially increasing pressure on global sunflower seed prices, particularly for imports in Mongolia, Russia, and Uzbekistan.

Meanwhile, prevailing prices across major producing and exporting countries remain mostly steady, with only minor fluctuations. The market continues to keep a watchful eye on Central and Eastern European weather, with a seasonal outlook suggesting generally favorable conditions for crop development, albeit with isolated dryness risks. Against this backdrop, supply chain participants face an environment where stable input costs and steady supply are broadly offsetting geopolitical risks in Black Sea logistics and dynamic global demand, especially from Europe and the Middle East. The fundamental outlook remains neutral-to-bearish in the short term, though strategic production gains and robust new-crop prospects argue for a cautious optimism among both physical traders and processors.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Delivery	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update	Market Sentiment
Ukraine (Kyiv)	Black	98%	FCA	UA	0.54	0.54	2025-06-20	Stable
Ukraine (Odesa)	Black	98%	FCA	UA	0.52	0.52	2025-06-20	Stable
Ukraine (Odesa)	Black	98%	FOB	UA	0.55	0.55	2025-06-20	Stable
Ukraine (Dnipro)	Hulled, Bakery	99.98%	FCA	UA	0.94	0.99	2025-06-17	Weaker
Moldova (Rheinfelden H.)	Black	98%	FCA	DE	0.46	0.46	2025-06-17	Stable
Bulgaria (Sofia)	Black	98%	FCA	BG	0.49	0.49	2025-06-17	Stable
Bulgaria (Sofia)	Striped	98%	FOB	BG	0.54	0.54	2025-06-17	Stable
China (Beijing)	Black	98%	FOB	CN	1.40	1.34	2025-06-17	Stronger

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Kazakhstan: New processing capacity in Zhetysu with low-cost seeds ($2/kg vs $5 in EU/China) increases domestic supply and export potential.
• Ukraine: Remains a key exporter despite ongoing regional instability; flows to EU mainstream.
• EU: Stable demand, but facing variable regional output due to weather.
• China & Turkey: Higher cost base supports imports but keeps internal flows largely domestic.
• Trade: Export flows robust to neighboring CIS, Russia, and Mongolia.
• Inventory levels: Generally comfortable, barring unexpected weather-induced yield changes.

📊 Fundamentals

• New facility in Kazakhstan drives structural change in regional supply, keeping a lid on price rallies.
• Production costs in the region are notably lower than peers, improving competitiveness.
• EU and Black Sea harvests projected steady; USDA outlooks remain neutral.
• Speculative positioning: Little sign of aggressive fund moves; physical demand leads.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine & Southern Russia: Mixed—plenty of moisture after a moderate spring, though some local drought concerns persist in Odesa and Kherson. Outlook: Mildly bullish for yields.
• Kazakhstan: Generally favorable weather, with sufficient rains in the Zhetysu region, underpinning strong crop expectations.
• Bulgaria/Romania: Mostly average conditions; localized dryness but improving after recent rains. Slight downside risk if another hot, dry spell emerges.
• China: Favorable overall, with good emergence and stand establishment in major seed provinces.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Output (est. Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Market Position
Ukraine	15.0	2.5	Top global exporter
Russia	16.5	3.0	Leading producer
Kazakhstan	1.2	0.25	Uptrending
Bulgaria	2.0	0.4	Regional player
China	2.8	0.9	Net importer
EU (aggregate)	7.4	0.6	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers should look to secure short- to mid-term coverage as new supply from Kazakhstan reaches the market and ex-Ukraine flows stabilize.
• Processors: Watch for potential input cost reductions from Zhetysu seed flows—advance procurement may lock in margin.
• Exporters: Monitor Black Sea logistics and possible disruptions, but sentiment remains broadly neutral with some downside.
• Speculators: Current fundamentals favor neutrality; consider opportunistic plays only on weather escalation or geopolitical news.
• Importers in the Middle East/CIS: New Central Asian supply presents competitive opportunities—track tender volumes for short-term price signals.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Kyiv (UA) FCA	0.54	0.53 – 0.54	Stable
Odesa (UA) FOB	0.55	0.54 – 0.56	Slightly bullish
Sofia (BG) FCA	0.49	0.48 – 0.50	Flat
Beijing (CN) FOB	1.40	1.38 – 1.41	Slightly bullish