Sunflower Market Sizzles Amid Strong Demand and Weather Risks

After months of subdued expectations, the global sunflower market has staged a powerful comeback, propelled by rising demand for vegetable oils and heightened procurement interest—especially in Ukraine, the sector’s linchpin. Despite prior forecasts for softer prices, both sunflower seed and oil markets have held firm, with procurement prices reaching high levels and showing resilience even in the face of mounting production uncertainty. Ukrainian exporters are benefiting from renewed European buying, leading to rising export prices, while competing oils like palm have also seen recent gains.

The rally is underscored by emerging weather risks in key Ukrainian production zones: crop losses are materializing due to drought, stoking anxiety about future supplies and supporting bullish sentiment across the market. In contrast, Russia’s record-high sunflower plantings and favorable weather have lifted supply forecasts and could stabilize global balance sheets, should Ukraine’s output falter further. Meanwhile, the Indian market’s preference is shifting towards cheaper alternatives as sunflower oil’s premium widens. European rapeseed harvest outcomes remain another pivotal factor for price direction in the coming weeks. The interplay between weather stress, geopolitical supply dynamics, and shifting demand patterns is setting the stage for a volatile trading period, with buyers and sellers alike monitoring every development.

📈 Latest Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Link
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.54	0.53	2025-07-09	Offer
Sunflower kernels (meal)	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.52	0.52	2025-07-09	Offer
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.55	1.53	2025-07-08	Offer

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine: Procurement prices remain high at $555–$565/ton. Export prices for sunflower oil are up $10–20, now at $1,110–1,120/ton (Black Sea ports).
• European Union: Strong demand, with DAP offers for Ukrainian oil at $1,200–1,220/ton—buoyed by euro strength.
• India: Stable sunflower oil prices ($1,195–1,200/ton CIF Mumbai), but importers are increasingly shifting to cheaper palm oil (up 4.6% on week to $979/ton).
• Russia: Planted area up 10% (11.5 mio ha), raising crop forecast to 18–19 mio tons, easing fears of global shortage if Ukrainian output drops.
• Rapeseed harvests in Ukraine and EU: Market watching for impact on overall vegetable oil supply and sunflower price ceiling.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Meal prices: Sunflower meal remains firm (€220–225/ton, delivered to port), tracking higher feed wheat/barley prices (€200–204/ton at port).
• Speculation: Price support is evident as processors outbid each other for bulk sunflower deliveries in Ukraine, while EU buyers lock in contract volumes on supply uncertainty.
• Inventory: EU and Indian inventories remain adequate, but forward bookings are rising as supply risks mount.

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Crop Conditions

• Ukraine: Southeastern regions are experiencing drought, with rain shortfall causing partial crop losses and damage. If precipitation does not materialize in the next week, significant downward revisions to the sunflower crop are likely.
• Russia: Weather remains favorable; large planting area, potential record yields expected.
• Europe: Mixed conditions but stable, pending updated rapeseed harvest assessments.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024E Output (mio tons)	Change YOY (%)	Stock/Usage Ratio (%)
Ukraine	~13–14	-10 to -15 (pending weather)	16
Russia	18–19	+5	23
EU	~10	Unch	21
India	Import	n/a	n/a

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish factors: Strong EU procurement, Ukrainian weather stress, and robust meal/feed demand.
• Bearish factors: Russia’s large crop, possible substitution to palm or rapeseed oil, stable Indian demand but with downward scope if palm keeps gaining.
• Consider locking in supply if exposed to Ukraine-origin seed/oil, as short-term volatility from weather risk is elevated.
• Buyers seeking feed should be aware that meal prices are riding feed grain strength, with little downside unless weather or harvest news surprises to the upside.
• Monitor rapeseed developments and any signs of rainfall relief in Ukraine for potential sharp reversals.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price	3-day Forecast	Sentiment
Ukraine (Odesa, FOB)	Sunflower seeds	0.54 €/kg	0.54–0.56 €/kg	Bullish
Ukraine (Black Sea, FOB)	Sunflower oil	$1,110–1,120/ton	$1,120–1,140/ton	Stable to Firm
EU (DAP)	Sunflower oil	€1,200–1,220/ton	€1,210–1,230/ton	Bullish
India (CIF Mumbai)	Sunflower oil	$1,195–1,200/ton	$1,190–1,210/ton	Stable