Sunflower Market Update: Rising Prices Fuel Optimism but Weather Remains a Risk

The global sunflower market is displaying renewed momentum as prices edge higher across key origination points in Europe, Asia, and Africa. Market participants have witnessed a firming trend fueled by tighter stocks, robust international demand, and emerging concerns around crop development due to volatile weather patterns in major producing regions. Notably, prices on the SAFEX exchange have recorded steady weekly gains, particularly in forward contracts, signaling growing confidence among producers and traders. In parallel, FOB offers for sunflower seeds out of China are now markedly higher than a month ago, while prices out of Ukraine and Bulgaria have stabilized or softened slightly.

Importers and processors are closely monitoring the weather outlook for the Black Sea region, a critical hub for global sunflower seed exports. Recent rain deficits in parts of southern Ukraine and Russia are raising apprehensions regarding yield potential, and this factor—coupled with shrinking inventories in the EU—continues to inject volatility into the market. As the new crop season approaches, speculative positioning and adjustments to planted acreage will play a pivotal role in shaping near-term price direction. With the global vegetable oil complex maintaining firmness, the sunflower sector looks set for a period of elevated price and trading activity provided weather risks persist.

📈 Prices: Market Snapshot & Weekly Change

Contract/Origin	Latest Price	Wkly Change	Currency/Unit	Sentiment
SAFEX Jun 25	9,239	+109 (1.18%)	ZAR/t	Bullish
SAFEX Jul 25	9,285	+85 (0.92%)	ZAR/t	Bullish
SAFEX Sep 25	9,471	+91 (0.96%)	ZAR/t	Bullish
SAFEX Dec 25	9,628	+51 (0.53%)	ZAR/t	Firm
CN Black Seeds (FOB, Beijing)	1.40	+0.06	EUR/kg	Bullish
CN Hulled Kernels, Confection (FOB)	0.93	-0.01	EUR/kg	Steady
UA Black Seeds (FOB, Odesa)	0.55	-0.01	EUR/kg	Weakening
BG Hulled Bakery Kernels (FCA, Sofia)	0.95	-0.33	EUR/kg	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Supply: Weather-induced uncertainty in Ukraine and southern Russia; stable supplies from China diversify the sourcing matrix but at higher prices; EU inventory drawdown tightens import market, lending support to prices.
• Demand: Steady international buying from Europe and Middle East for edible oil and edible kernel applications; strong renewed interest in value-added sunflower products.
• Speculation & Positioning: Rising open interest on SAFEX and Euronext futures reflects increased hedging by producers amid price uptrend.

📊 Fundamentals: Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2023/24 Production (Mt)	2023/24 End Stocks (Mt)	Market Note
Ukraine	15.2	2.1	Weather risk; war impact
Russia	16.9	2.8	Drier-than-normal regions
EU	10.8	1.3	Lower acreage, tighter supply
China	2.8	0.4	Steady exports, higher prices
Argentina	3.6	0.3	Harvest completed; stable

☀️ Weather Outlook: June 2025

• Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia): Below-normal rainfall and heat waves expected continue into late June; critical for kernel filling and oil content. Yields may come under pressure if rain deficits persist.
• Central Europe (Romania, Bulgaria): Recent showers brought some relief, supporting crop development, but more rain is needed to secure average yields.
• China (Northeast): Stable with warm, generally favorable weather for crop health and progression.
• Africa (South Africa): Ending harvest with generally favorable conditions; new sowings in planning phase for 2025/26.

📉 Market Drivers & Speculative Positioning

• Recent USDA and regional reports confirm marginal downward revisions to Ukrainian output. Export flows remain below last year but stable month-on-month.
• EU processors face tightening stocks, with some buyers extending forward coverage amid uncertainty.
• Speculators have built net-long positions in sunflower complex as vegetable oil prices rise globally.
• Acreage shifts, especially in Russia and Bulgaria, signal potential for mild recovery in 2025/26 if sowing conditions improve.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Sellers: Consider pricing part of new crop sales as prices rally, especially for early delivery slots (July–September).
• Buyers: Secure coverage for Q3–Q4 requirements to mitigate supply risk from Black Sea weather.
• Speculators: Upside risk persists; corrections possible if weather improves but limited downside in the near term given supportive fundamentals.
• Watch: Weekly weather updates from Ukraine, Russia, and EU; developments in EU tariff and trade policy for oils and seeds.
• Risk: Escalation in eastern Ukraine or further weather deterioration could trigger additional price rallies.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecasts

Exchange/Origination	Spot Price	3-day Forecast	Trend
SAFEX (Jun 25)	9,239 ZAR/t	9,250–9,280 ZAR/t	Firm/Up
CN Black Seeds (FOB, Beijing)	1.40 EUR/kg	1.39–1.45 EUR/kg	Up
UA Black Seeds (FOB, Odesa)	0.55 EUR/kg	0.53–0.55 EUR/kg	Stable/Soft
BG Hulled Bakery Kernels (FCA, Sofia)	0.95 EUR/kg	0.94–0.96 EUR/kg	Sideways