Sunflower Market Update: Uneven Global Supply, Export Inventory Moves & Mixed Price Trends

The global sunflower market is experiencing a period of cautious recalibration as buyers and sellers navigate thinning stocks, varying quality, and price volatility. Chinese domestic markets, particularly in Xinjiang and Gansu, are winding down, trading quality differences among leftover lots drive differentiated pricing, and high-quality products are growing scarce. Meanwhile, Inner Mongolia’s offering is dominated by shelled, lower-grade seeds, with a reasonable trading tone. Exporters prioritise volume purchases and inventory clearance, highlighting a tactical shift as the peak season recedes. Internationally, sunflower prices show mixed movement, with China’s FOB seed prices edging lower, while some processed products strengthen moderately.

The supply landscape is fragmented: strong competition from Ukraine and the Black Sea region, stable volumes from Bulgaria, and moderate activity in Moldova and Germany. As sunflower crops approach key stages, savvy participants keep a keen eye on weather developments—the next few weeks pose critical yield risks, especially as precipitation patterns vary across Eurasia and Europe. Inventory holds in Ukraine and Bulgaria remain pivotal, framing the trading strategy for both processors and export-oriented traders. The coming days will likely be characterised by guarded optimism, weather watchfulness, and brisk strategic adjustments ahead of the new crop push.

📈 Prices: Latest Sunflower Market Snapshot

Origin	Commodity	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery	Location	Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
China	Sunflower seeds	Black	98%	No	FOB	Beijing	1.33	-0.05	Weak
China	Kernels	Hulled, confection	99.95%	No	FOB	Beijing	0.92	+0.02	Stable
China	Kernels	Hulled, bakery	99.95%	No	FOB	Beijing	0.96	+0.02	Firm
Ukraine	Seeds	Black	98%	No	FOB	Odesa	0.57	=	Steady
Bulgaria	Seeds	Black	98%	No	FCA	Sofia	0.48	+0.02	Stable
Moldova/DE	Seeds	Black	98%	No	FCA	Rheinfelden	0.46	=	Quiet
Bulgaria	Kernels	Hulled, confection	99.98%	No	FCA	Sofia	1.15	-0.02	Weak
Bulgaria	Kernels	Hulled, bakery	99.98%	No	FCA	Sofia	0.93	-0.07	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Chinese procurement is winding down as most primary regions (Xinjiang, Gansu) finish their trading campaigns; remaining stocks vary sharply in quality.
• Exporter focus is on clearing inventories and volume-based purchases, reflecting cautious forward demand.
• Ukrainian and Bulgarian supply remains the keystone of international flows; however, price competition and risk tolerance vary by region.
• Shipments from Black Sea origin (Ukraine) and Bulgaria are steady, with some softening seen in processed kernel prices.
• European confectionery and bakery kernel demand holds stable, but price softness is noticed in select segments.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Major market drivers: Seasonal tailwinds fade as global sunflower harvests near; crop quality variation, cleanup of old stock, and cautious speculative interest are in focus.
• USDA and local forecasts indicate tightening Chinese and global sunflower inventories, despite solid holdover in Ukraine and Bulgaria.
• Speculative long positioning in the sunflower complex is limited, in part due to persistent macro uncertainty and recent volatility in oilseed markets.
• Premiums persist for high-quality, large-seed lots, especially with low internal mould and high test weight.
• Seasonal slowdown in new bookings is evident, as trade focuses on cargo execution and stock clearing.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• China (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu): Dry and warm weather prevails, accelerating late-season fieldwork but imposing potential drought stress—yields of late-maturing and double-crop fields could slip without timely rain.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Mixed precipitation—recent scattered rain supports early growth, but outlook for July turns drier, raising short-term risk.
• Bulgaria & Southeastern Europe: Weather mostly favourable, with routine showers aiding stand establishment; watch for potential heat spikes in the next 10 days.

🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison (Major Players)

Country	2024 Production (Est., mln t)	2023 Prod. (mln t)	Ending Stocks 2024 (mln t)	YoY Change
Ukraine	14.1	13.4	1.8	+5% prod
Russia	15.9	17.1	2.0	-7% prod
China	2.8	2.6	0.09	+8% prod
EU-27	9.8	9.5	1.05	+3% prod

• Ukraine and Russia remain the largest exporters; Russia’s output softened YoY, while Ukraine offers slight gains.
• China remains import-dependent, supplementing domestic output mainly for the food/edible segment.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Monitor weather in major growing regions: any escalation in drought risk across Eurasia supports prices, especially for high-quality seeds/kernels.
• Exporters with access to premium lots may find price resilience; average/low-quality stock faces discount pressure as the clean-up phase proceeds.
• Currently subdued procurement from Chinese buyers may revive if price trends stabilise or inventory concerns rise.
• Watch Ukrainian Black Sea logistics closely: any disruption or cost surge could impact FOB pricing and global offers.
• Bullish bias in processed kernel and speciality sunflower product segments, especially if new crop conditions fall short of expectations.

3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/Origins)

Origin/Location	Product	Delivery	Last Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Beijing (CN)	Black Sunflower Seeds	FOB	1.33	1.31 – 1.34
Odesa (UA)	Black Sunflower Seeds	FOB	0.57	0.56 – 0.58
Sofia (BG)	Black Sunflower Seeds	FCA	0.48	0.47 – 0.49
Beijing (CN)	Hulled Kernels (Bakery)	FOB	0.96	0.95 – 0.98

Key risks: Short-term demand volatility, export logistics in the Black Sea region, heat/drought in Eurasian zones.