Surging Acreage and Steady Demand: Corn Market Analysis July 2024

The global corn market in mid-July 2024 is shaped by rapidly expanding cultivation, robust demand from feed and energy sectors, and carefully watched weather patterns across major producing regions. Driven by both higher profitability for farmers and favorable policy environments, India—emerging as a key growth engine—has witnessed a 15% jump in sown area compared to last year, with maize covering 9.34 million hectares by July 21. Supported by government initiatives pushing ethanol blending and resilient demand from animal feed producers, these factors have substantially improved the economic appeal of maize, especially as an alternative to more volatile crops like soybeans and pulses.

Significant regional expansion in states like Karnataka and Maharashtra, coupled with projected corn output reaching an all-time high (42.28 million tonnes for 2024-25), positions India as a pivotal player in regional and global supply. At the same time, international prices for yellow feed-grade corn remain stable, reflecting both abundant supply and continued demand from the EU, Asia, and Middle East countries. Looking ahead, attention is firmly fixed on the global acreage, evolving weather patterns—especially in the US Corn Belt and Black Sea regions—and ongoing shifts in inventory and trade policy. This analysis provides a comprehensive overview, prices at key exchanges, supply and demand trends, fundamentals and trading outlook for corn, so market participants can navigate the coming weeks with confidence.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Price Last Week (EUR/kg)	Change	Market Sentiment	Offer Link
Ukraine	Yellow feed grade (98%)	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	0.0%	Stable	View
France	Yellow	Paris	FOB	0.25	0.25	0.0%	Neutral	View
Ukraine	Feed	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	0.0%	Weak demand	View
India	Starch (organic)	New Delhi	FOB	1.93	1.95	-1.0%	Slightly bearish	View

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Maize acreage up 15% YoY, led by Karnataka (3.76M ha), Maharashtra (3.05M ha), Rajasthan (2.43M ha), and Telangana (1.11M ha). Gujarat’s area fell to 0.54M ha.
• Output: Total Indian maize production projected at 42.28M tonnes for 2024-25 (up from 37.66M t).
• Ethanol & Feed: Demand surging for ethanol blending (currently 9.7% of Indian corn, rising to 22% by 2034) and feed industries.
• Exports: India: Maize exports valued at $1.37B in FY25.
• Global: Stability in major exporters (Ukraine, Argentina, USA); US corn crop rated over 65% good/excellent as of July, according to USDA. Black Sea and EU supply remains ample.

📊 Fundamentals

• Indian maize area for 2024-25 (incl. Rabi/summer) at 20.84M ha, reflecting structural shift to maize from other Kharif crops.
• International corn prices steady at key ports due to abundant supply and stable feed demand in EU and Middle East.
• Indian maize output almost doubled in a decade (22.57M t in 2015-16 to 42.28M t 2024-25).
• Key driver: Government ethanol policy, livestock/feed market growth, and export market access improvements.
• Speculative positioning on CBOT mildly bullish, with managed money net long but below previous highs.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon rainfall in south and central maize-producing states has been near normal, but sporadic dry spells in Gujarat may hamper yields locally.
• US Corn Belt: July temperatures above normal, but adequate soil moisture in most regions—crop conditions stable (USDA).
• Ukraine: Wet weather in July supporting crop health; some concerns remain for late-planted fields.

Yield Risks: Watch for erratic rainfall in India (especially Gujarat/Rajasthan), and any late-season heatwaves in the US or Black Sea region.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023/24 Output (M tonnes)	2024/25 Output est. (M tonnes)	2024/25 Stocks est. (M tonnes)
USA	389.7	384.5	46.3
China	288.8	287.0	206.0
India	37.7	42.3	4.4
Ukraine	29.0	29.7	1.8
Argentina	55.0	54.0	2.7
EU	62.5	63.7	6.1

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Sellers: Consider locking in forward sales, especially for Indian and Ukrainian corn, with acreage and yields likely to meet or exceed forecasts.
• 📈 Buyers: Watch for local supply disruptions (India: Gujarat, US: late-season weather); short-term dips could offer buying opportunities, especially before US harvest pressure intensifies.
• 🔍 Traders: Maintain a balanced position with watchful eye on speculative flows and global inventory data.
• ⏳ Risk Watch: Monitor weather events and government interventions in ethanol blending policy or export restrictions, especially in India and the US.

🔎 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg)

Exchange/Location	Today	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
Odesa (UA, yellow feed FCA)	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	Stable
Paris (FR, yellow FOB)	0.25	0.25	0.26	0.26	Slightly up
New Delhi (IN, starch organic FOB)	1.93	1.93	1.93	1.92	Slightly down