The Dilemma of Quality vs. Quantity
In the raisin market, there’s currently no room for growth, predominantly because the old stock of raisins surpasses the new. This season, the market has been flooded with low-quality goods sold at minimal prices, leading to a decrease in the value of higher-quality raisins. Light-quality raisins, in particular, are being sold at exceptionally low prices. As a result, there’s no anticipation of a price increase for raisins. Despite these conditions, labour efforts are advised to continue across all operations. The Sangli Tasgaon region has seen an uptick in light-quality raisin production due to the high output of grapes of inferior quality. Here, 80 percent of the average green goods are being sold for $1,08 to $1,38 per kilogram, whereas in the local dry fruit market, the prices vary from $1,32 to $1,92 per kilogram.
Distribution and Consumer Response
This season’s raisins are of lighter quality, and the old stock exceeds the new by approximately 22 percent. Moreover, raisin stock has already piled up in consumer markets. With only about 15 percent of the distributor market’s offerings being sold, the accumulation of new and old raisin stock has intensified in both producer and distributor spheres. In Delhi NCR, there are scarcely any buyers for raisins, whereas goods from the Sangli Tasgaon line in Maharashtra are being sold at low prices across various markets, including Bihar’s Patna, Gaya, Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, and Jharkhand’s Dhanbad, Katras, Bokaro, Ranchi. Consequently, the trade from Delhi to Eastern India has significantly reduced. Good green goods are now priced between $2,40 to $2,70 per kilogram, yet such quality goods account for barely 20 percent of the available stock. Given these factors, focusing on low-priced goods seems more viable, as aiming for a bullish trade in raisins appears unprofitable. It’s also important to note that raisin production has increased over the last two years, with a previous ratio of good to light goods at 60 to 40 percent. However, this year, the proportion of good-quality goods has diminished, indicating no potential for price increases in the foreseeable future.
The raisin market is currently navigating through a period of saturation, where excess supply and diminished demand for high-quality goods lead to a pessimistic outlook on price growth. In my view, the market’s future hinges on balancing quality production with market demand to stabilize prices and regain profitability.
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