There could be an oversupply of soybeans in European Russia, which will lower prices for flour and beans.
This year’s oilseed crop could exceed a record 24 million tonnes. The sunflower crop could reach 15.15 million tonnes, the soybean crop 4.7 million tonnes and the rapeseed crop 2.8 million tonnes. This forecast was made at the XIII International Scientific and Industrial Conference of the National Association of Pig Breeders by Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. “In our opinion, Russian soy producers made a mistake when they set high prices at the beginning of the season. They could be penalized because a grave import of soy meal from Latin America has started,” he said.
ICAR estimates that about 160 000 tonnes of GMO-free meals have been imported into Russia since the beginning of the season. Rylko: “That’s a lot, and it’s a big deterrent to the domestic market given our prohibitive export tariffs. The Far East is hostage to these tariffs: before they were imposed, the region exported up to 1 million tonnes of soybeans to China, but with the current tariff of 20% or $100/tonne, it is impossible to sustain such volumes. Moreover, logistical problems make it impossible to export this product to regions far from the Far East. “Therefore, there could be an oversupply of soybeans in the European part of Russia, which will affect the prices of beans and meal and create a comfortable situation for the pig industry,” Rylko says.
He also said at the conference that this year’s wheat harvest would be 76.5 million tonnes, according to ICAR’s baseline forecast, although regions have recently reported an increase in harvests. “We don’t recall there ever being any talk of an increase in yields after the harvest was completed. This raises some questions,” Rylko added. The barley harvest will be 18.2 million tonnes, up from 20.9 million tonnes last year, while the maize harvest will be 15.6 million tonnes, up from 13.9 million tonnes, which could be a record. The total gross cereal harvest is expected to be 122.7 million tonnes (minimum – 120.7 million tonnes), up from 133.5 million tonnes last year.
Source: Agroinvestor