Tight Turkish Apricot Supply Meets Uzbek Pressure as New Season Opens Softly

The 2026 Turkish dried apricot season opens with below-normal supply and sluggish early exports, pointing to a sideways-to-firm price bias despite aggressive low-priced competition from Uzbekistan. Export activity since the 1 August start has been muted, even as market participants digest a small Malatya crop of roughly 75,000–80,000 tons after irregular winter and spring weather with hail and rain. Producers see structurally tighter supply as price-supportive, but weak initial demand and Uzbek sellers offering significantly lower prices are capping upside. In this context, expectations are growing that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) may step in with support purchases to stabilize the market and defend Turkey’s leading export position.

Prices

FOB Malatya and Ankara prices for new-crop Turkish dried apricots on 27 August 2026 are broadly steady versus mid-August, reflecting a standoff between tight local supply and hesitant global demand. Unsulphured conventional sizes trade around EUR 8.20–8.30/kg for No. 1–2, with smaller sizes (No. 3–5) clustered near EUR 7.90–8.15/kg. Organic unsulphured product carries a clear premium, mostly around EUR 9.00–9.20/kg.

In European warehouses (FCA Dordrecht), Turkish origin sulphured whole fruit stands roughly between EUR 6.10 and 7.15/kg depending on size, around 0.05–0.10 EUR/kg higher than a week earlier, indicating moderate firmer sentiment downstream. Diced and cubes remain the clear discount category at just under EUR 4.00/kg. Overall, the forward curve is flat: limited nearby availability argues for firmness, but buyers are in no hurry amid Uzbek undercutting and a slow start to export programs.

Supply & Demand

After last year’s severe frost and heavy drawdown of carry-over stocks, the 2026 Malatya dried apricot crop is structurally tight. Field assessments and industry estimates converge on a production band of 75,000–80,000 tons, with some sources even suggesting an official reference near 70,000 tons in earlier discussions. This marks a clear recovery from the frost-affected season but remains below a comfortable surplus year.

Adverse weather has been the key constraint. Irregular winter and spring conditions, including flowering-period rain and localized hailstorms, damaged pollination and fruit set and trimmed expectations for both yield and quality. At the same time, the previous year’s crop failure left almost no carry-over into 2026, meaning export supply now depends almost entirely on the current harvest. With trees in generally good condition and harvest in Malatya now largely complete, short-term supply risks are low, but there is no buffer if demand suddenly accelerates.

On the demand side, the season has had a slow commercial start: despite the formal export opening on 1 August, shipments so far are below expectations. This reflects buyer caution after last season’s sharply higher prices and a desire to test how far Turkish offers will adjust in the face of cheaper Central Asian alternatives. Uzbekistan, whose crop has expanded and is marketed aggressively at low price points, is the main competitive threat, particularly in price-sensitive destinations in the Middle East and parts of Asia.

Fundamentals & Policy

The fundamental picture is one of moderate Turkish undersupply within a still well-covered global market. Turkey remains the dominant dried apricot origin, but INC data show rising production in Uzbekistan and Iran, both on track for sizeable 2025/26 crops that increase global availability even as Turkey’s own output and stocks normalize only gradually. This helps explain why Malatya’s tightness has not yet translated into a more pronounced global price spike.

Locally, producer sentiment is cautious but firm. After weather-related losses and reduced productivity, growers are looking to recoup margins and are reluctant to sell at the low price levels currently offered by some competing origins. At the same time, mixed fruit quality (hail marks, speckling in places, high sulphur in some lots) is creating a wider internal spread between premium and standard grades. Buyers willing to pay up for clean, large sizes may face tighter availability than headline tonnage suggests.

An important swing factor is the potential intervention of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). Producers and exporters are openly calling for TMO purchases to absorb part of the crop, support producer prices, and anchor export quotations against aggressive undercutting from Uzbekistan. If TMO steps in with meaningful volumes, this would likely put a firm floor under domestic prices and tighten export availability over the season; the absence of such action would leave the market more exposed to competitive price pressure.

Weather & Harvest Outlook

The main harvest in Malatya is now almost complete, with no significant late-season weather shocks reported. Earlier in the cycle, rainfall and localized hail were the key disruptive events, but recent weeks have brought predominantly sunny, seasonally warm conditions that favored drying and reduced crop-quality risks.

Short-term forecasts for eastern and central-eastern Turkey point to stable, dry weather with normal temperature ranges, reducing the risk of post-harvest quality losses in open-air drying yards. With orchards now entering the post-harvest phase, weather becomes less critical for volume but will still influence drying dynamics and the color of late-processed fruit. Overall, weather is currently a neutral to slightly positive factor for prices, reinforcing the prevailing sideways structure.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

Trading recommendations (next 4–6 weeks)

• Importers / industrial buyers: Consider covering near-term needs on price dips, particularly for premium large sizes and clean unsulphured fruit, where limited availability could tighten later if TMO intervenes or if exports accelerate from Q4 onward.
• Retail and brand owners: Stagger purchases and avoid overextending at the top of the current range; Uzbek and other origins are likely to continue offering discounts, providing blending options for mid-quality products.
• Turkish producers/exporters: Maintain disciplined offer levels in anticipation of possible TMO support, but stay flexible on secondary grades where Uzbek competition is strongest to avoid stock accumulation.

3-day directional price indication (EUR, spot):

• FOB Malatya/Ankara, unsulphured whole fruit: Sideways to slightly firm; tight farmer selling and small crop support current levels, but weak early export demand limits upside.
• FOB Malatya/Ankara, sulphured whole fruit: Largely sideways; adequate supply and competition from alternative origins keep prices in a narrow band.
• FCA NL (EU warehouses): Mild upward bias of about 0.05–0.10 EUR/kg is possible on fresh arrivals and logistics costs, but any stronger move will depend on clearer signals about TMO policy and Turkish export pace.