Tight U.S. Pistachio Supply and Steady Prices Define 2025 Global Nuts Market

The global nuts market, particularly pistachios, is currently characterized by lower U.S. export volumes and firming prices as the 2024/25 marketing year moves deeper into its ‘off-year’ cycle. According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data, U.S. pistachio exports in July 2025 totaled 18,600 metric tons—marking a notable 14% drop both month-on-month and year-on-year. Despite this slump, volumes remain 6% above the five-year average, underscoring persistent underlying demand. However, overall U.S. pistachio exports from September 2024 to July 2025 are significantly down by 20% compared to last year—a reflection of the alternate bearing nature of pistachio trees and a tough comparison against the 2023/24 season’s record export performance. Exporters are stretched to meet USDA’s projected annual target, intensifying competition for limited supplies; nonetheless, robust global demand continues to drive prices higher and underpin market stability.

Market participants are closely monitoring supply chain flows and weather conditions in key producing regions, amid projections of only modest improvements in export volumes for the remainder of the year. With Germany, India, and Spain absorbing over half of shipments and a late summer squeeze on supply, trading strategies remain focused on covering commitments and capitalizing on sustained demand.

📈 Price Table: Latest Offers on Nuts

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Week Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Brazil nuts (medium)	NL	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	6.58	0.0%	Stable, firm undertone

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• July Exports: U.S. pistachio exports at 18,600 mt, down 14% MoM and YoY, but 6% above the 5-year average.
• Key Destinations (52% share):
  • Germany: 3,500 mt
  • India: 2,700 mt
  • Spain: 1,300 mt
  • Italy: 1,200 mt
  • Belgium: 1,100 mt
• Year-to-date (Sep 2024–Jul 2025): 312,900 mt, 20% below last year, but 19% above 5-year average.
• USDA 2024/25 Export Projection: 360,000 mt; 47,100 mt needs be shipped in August 2025 to meet this target.
• Global Demand: Remains robust, supporting firm price levels despite tight supplies.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• Alternate Bearing: 2024/25 is an ‘off-year’ for pistachios; production is naturally lower following last year’s record-high output and trade.
• Inventories: Industry still above five-year average on most metrics, but visible tightening in key import markets.
• Speculative Positioning: Exporters remain cautious and focused on contractual shipments as margins firm up with supply constraints.
• Substitution Effect: Stable or rising Brazil nut prices in the Netherlands and Europe hint at cross-category demand as buyers seek alternatives.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Implications

• California: Current weather conditions are mildly favorable, with timely irrigation supporting nut fill but isolated heatwaves expected in late September could slightly trim late harvest yields.
• Mediterranean & Central Asia: Stable temperatures but some risk of late-season dryness, possibly impacting size and quality of competing origins.
• Forecast Impact: Weather is not expected to rescue the ‘off-year’ scenario for pistachios, but extremes could further tighten inventories and support prices.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison (2024/25)

Country	2024/25 Output (est., mt)	YoY Change (%)	Stock Position
USA	~400,000	-15%	Dwindling, high commitments
Iran	260,000	+5%	Moderate stocks
Turkey	120,000	+8%	Ample local
EU (imports)	n/a	—	Stocks contracting

📆 Trading & Risk Outlook

• Expect further firmness in U.S. and EU pistachio and Brazil nut prices amid tight supplies and robust demand streams.
• Exporters with available stock may find attractive premiums for prompt shipments.
• Buyers should secure forward cover for Q4 obligations as downside risk to price is limited by supply constraints.
• Weather remains a moderate wildcard but is unlikely to bring major relief to supply.

🔮 Three-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges & EU)

Exchange/Market	Product	Spot Price	3-Day Forecast Trend	Sentiment
Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts	6.58 EUR/kg	Stable to slightly firmer	Firm, steady
California Plant	Pistachios (US Extra #1, 21/25)	Not quoted (tight supply)	Firm, possible nominal uptick	Supported

Summary: Near-term prices are likely to stay stable to firm as the market digests the realities of an ‘off-year’ U.S. pistachio crop and elevated baseline global demand.