Trade Turmoil Reshapes Global Soya Market: US Exports Plunge as China Switches to Brazil, Argentina

The international soya market stands at a crossroads, impacted by escalating trade tensions and rapidly shifting trade flows. Recent moves by China to halt purchases of American soybeans—once a cornerstone of US agricultural exports—have effectively transformed global market dynamics overnight. China’s decision, prompted by new US tariff hikes and countered by Chinese import duties of 25%, has dramatically reduced the US share of Chinese soybean imports from 19% to merely 4% within a year. The direct fallout is most evident in the American Midwest, where farmers are witnessing a historic oversupply and depressed prices.

Meanwhile, the void left by the US has been filled by South American suppliers, particularly Brazil and Argentina, who now enjoy increased demand and higher prices. The broader landscape is further complicated by India’s potential entry into protectionism, signaling that other agricultural commodities, like cotton, may soon feel similar reverberations. Weather-related uncertainties and speculative positioning compound this volatility, keeping traders and stakeholders alert. Looking ahead, with weather risks in Brazil and the US Midwest, global soybean flows and pricing will remain exceptionally sensitive to policy changes and climate patterns in the coming months.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Current Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Date	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US	No.2	Washington D.C.	0.35	0.35	2025-08-21	0%	Bearish
India	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	0.72	0.72	2025-08-21	0%	Neutral
Ukraine	–	Odesa	0.34	0.35	2025-08-21	-2.9%	Bearish
China	Yellow, Organic (99.8%)	Beijing	0.79	0.78	2025-08-20	+1.3%	Bullish
China	Yellow (99.5%)	Beijing	0.71	0.70	2025-08-20	+1.4%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China’s import halt: US market share in China plummeted to 4% (-15pp YoY).
• Brazil & Argentina: Increased export share to China, supporting local prices and boosting their balance sheets.
• US Farmers: Facing oversupply, weak domestic basis, and price pressure amid lost export avenues.
• Global Diversification: China’s policy shift may permanently alter traditional trade routes.
• India: Potential trade controls for cotton highlight rising protectionism in major agri markets.
• Speculative activity: Funds remain net-short in US exchanges, reflecting ongoing market caution.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE report shows higher US ending stocks; reduced export outlook pushes carryout above 8 million tonnes.
• Crop Acreage: US planted acreage for soybeans falling 4% YoY; Brazil’s soy area steadily expanding again.
• South American Harvest: Brazil saw a record 2025 crop; however, early forecasts for 2026 point to yield risks from emerging drought signals.
• Inventories: CBOT warehouse stocks have risen; China building reserves through diversified sourcing.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Forecast calls for above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall over the next week, adding stress during crucial pod-filling period.
• Brazil (Center-West): Current dryness could reduce planting moisture as the 2025/26 cycle begins; risk to projected area expansion.
• Argentina: Stable and favorable conditions overall; no major risks foreseen through next 3 days.

Weather developments in these regions may further shift global supply expectations and volatility in futures and cash markets.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Production (2024/25, mt)	Stocks (mt)	Key Role
Brazil	157	44	Top exporter to China; increasing market share
US	112	23	Facing weak export demand, growing stocks
Argentina	52	12	Key supplier amid US-China tensions
China	20	32	World’s top importer, diversifying sources

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term pressure on US prices expected to persist, given lingering oversupply and slow export program.
• Brazilian and Argentine exporters encouraged to maximize shipments amid strong Chinese demand.
• Buyers seeking to cover demand should monitor South American weather risks, with potential price spikes if planting delays worsen.
• Speculators could consider short positions in US futures until significant demand recovery signals appear.
• The risk of further trade escalation remains, particularly with India adopting a more protective stance—watch policy signals closely.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast (€/kg)	Direction
US (Washington D.C., FOB)	0.35	0.34 – 0.35	Stable to Slightly Lower
Brazil (Paranaguá, FOB est.)	0.75	0.74 – 0.76	Stable
China (Beijing, FOB)	0.71/0.79 (conv.)	0.71 – 0.80	Stable to Slightly Higher
Ukraine (Odesa, FOB)	0.34	0.33 – 0.35	Stable