Turkish Hazelnut Kernels Hold Firm as Market Watches New-Crop Signals
Concise July 2026 update on Turkish hazelnut prices, crop outlook, domestic costs, FX and TMO expectations, with a 3-day EUR price indication.
Prices
Based on the latest FOB Turkey indications converted into EUR using an approximate rate of 1 EUR ≈ 53.3 TRY as of 17 July 2026, Istanbul and İzmir kernel offers are broadly steady week-on-week, with a slight firming for some organic lines.
In the domestic Turkish market, free-market prices for 50% yield in-shell hazelnuts in Ordu are reported around 170 TRY/kg as of 16 July 2026, effectively locked at that level in recent days while stakeholders await TMO’s new-crop buying price. This corresponds to roughly 3.2 EUR/kg in-shell when translated via current FX.
Supply & Demand
In the key Black Sea growing provinces, Giresun’s official crop estimation commission has only just started detailed catkin and nut cluster counts in representative orchards, with final 2026 production estimates expected after roughly two weeks of fieldwork. This timing means that, for now, exporters and buyers work with a wide range of informal yield assumptions.
Earlier this year, Turkey’s hazelnut export volumes fell by roughly one-third even as export revenues increased in the first four months of 2026, underlining how higher unit prices compensated for lower shipments. EU demand has remained resilient, with Germany and other core European confectionery hubs absorbing high-priced kernels thanks to strong branded product sales. However, recent market research indicates that Turkey has started to lose some share in certain EU markets to newer origins such as Chile, mainly due to price competitiveness and volatility.
Domestically, growers’ cost inflation is a central driver. Producers in the Western Black Sea are signaling that 2026 production costs may be in the low 240s TRY/kg range, and farm organizations are publicly calling for a TMO intervention price at or above 320 TRY/kg to cover rising labor and input costs. This narrative supports growers’ reluctance to forward-sell at lower levels and underpins the current firmness of farm-gate and kernel offer prices.
Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)
Hazelnut orchards along the Central and Eastern Black Sea (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon and neighboring provinces) are entering the pre-harvest phase under seasonally warm and humid conditions. Short-range local forecasts point to typical Black Sea July weather with frequent cloud cover, scattered showers and moderate temperatures rather than extreme heat waves.
So far, no major weather-related shock has been reported over the last few days in core hazelnut zones, and current field inspections suggest a broadly normal crop, pending completion of official yield surveys in Giresun and Ordu. As a result, near-term price support is driven more by cost inflation, currency dynamics and policy expectations than by acute weather threats.
Fundamentals & Macro Backdrop
The Turkish lira remains structurally weak and volatile, with the EUR/TRY rate hovering in the low-50s, keeping international hazelnut prices in EUR relatively stable even when TRY-denominated farm-gate prices change. This FX backdrop is essential for exporters pricing long-dated contracts into the EU chocolate and bakery sectors.
From a balance-sheet angle, Turkey entered MY 2025/26 with comfortable but not excessive stocks after a smaller prior crop and firm export program. Recent international analyses highlight that while Turkey still dominates global hazelnut supply, its pricing power is constrained by competition and by the need to maintain market share in key importing countries. Therefore, the level at which TMO sets its new-crop support price will be crucial: too high, and it may further erode competitiveness; too low, and farmer discontent could restrict marketed volumes early in the season.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Price direction (next 1–2 weeks): With domestic in-shell prices in Ordu anchored around 170 TRY/kg and no final crop estimate yet, EUR-based kernel offers from Turkey are likely to stay in a narrow range, with a mild upside bias if TMO signals a stronger support price.
- For buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q4–Q1 needs at current EUR levels, especially for organic kernels where offers are already moving slightly higher. Leave some volume open to benefit if the eventual crop estimate surprises on the high side and TMO pricing is less aggressive than growers expect.
- For sellers / exporters: Maintain price discipline but be prepared for selective concessions in large-volume or strategic EU accounts, given evidence that elevated Turkish prices have already shifted some demand to alternative origins. Focus on value-added and organic products, where Turkey retains a quality premium.
- Risk factors to monitor: Final Giresun and Ordu crop estimates over the next two weeks, TMO’s new-crop purchasing price announcement, and any sharp moves in EUR/TRY that could quickly alter export-parity calculations.
3-Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, directional)
- TR, Istanbul FOB conventional kernels: Sideways to slightly softer in EUR, with most exporters holding offers but open to minor discounts on volume deals.
- TR, İzmir FOB organic kernels: Slightly firmer bias in EUR as niche demand and limited supply meet, especially in larger sizes and roasted forms.
- Domestic TR in-shell (Ordu, Giresun): Local TRY prices expected to stay near the current 170 TRY/kg in the next three days, effectively steady in EUR terms given modest FX moves.