📈 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Frost Damage Drives Prices to New Highs, TMO Out of Stock 📈
📍 Hazelnut prices in Turkey have surged dramatically amid uncertainty over frost damage, leading to panic buying and a near sellout of TMO stocks. While sellers are holding back, buyers are scrambling to secure supply. The price spiral, combined with a weakening Turkish Lira, has driven raw material prices up by over 35% in two weeks.
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Hazelnut kernels
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FOB 8.35 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
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FOB 7.00 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 8.61 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 9.06 €/kg
(from TR)
📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
Week 16 Market Prices (DDP Central Europe):
| Product | Price (€) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Hazelnut Kernels 11–13 mm (raw) | €9.01 | +20.33% |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.35 | +2.08% |
| Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm | €8.58 | +1.52% |
| Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm | €7.48 | +1.17% |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.37 | +1.38% |
📈 TRY Performance (vs. EUR): Turkish Lira weakened 1.5% week-over-week.
📍 Market Development vs. Previous Periods:
- Quarterly Price Increase: +15.02%
- Half-Year Increase: +22.17%
- Annual Increase: +16.75%
- 3-Year Gain: +41.88%
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
🔥 Frost Triggers Price Explosion
- Night frosts along Turkey’s Black Sea coast severely impacted orchards.
- Early estimates suggest damage to at least 20% of the 2025 crop, especially in Samsun and Western Turkey.
- Many trees may drop nuts in the coming months due to stress, a delayed damage effect often underestimated.
🧊 TMO Stocks Depleted
- The TMO suspended sales mid-week, with only 10,000–20,000 MT remaining.
- Buyers transferred funds without knowing what they’d receive, just to reserve quantities.
📦 Sellers Withdraw
- Most farmers have pulled back, holding onto stocks in anticipation of higher prices.
- Exporters are partially undercovered, having sold commission-based goods early.
📉 Currency Impact Diminished
- While the Lira fell, its impact was neutralised by soaring raw material prices.
📉 Export Prices from Week 16 (as listed separately):
| Product | Min (€) | Max (€) |
|---|---|---|
| Hazelnut Kernels 11–13 mm (raw, vacuum) | €8.55 | €10.04 |
| Hazelnut Kernels 0–2 mm (roasted) | €7.00 | €8.40 |
| Hazelnut Paste (medium, roasted) | €6.25 | €8.35 |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Product | Forecast Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm | €9.10 – €9.60 |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €12.30 – €12.80 |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.40 – €7.80 |
📌 Upside Risk: Strong – buyers remain active, sellers hold out.
📌 Downside Risk: Limited – unless frost damage proves minor in May.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend
🌦️ Turkey – Black Sea Region (Trabzon, Ordu, Samsun, Düzce):
- 🌡️ Day temperatures: 13–17°C, nights remain cool
- 🌧️ Rain expected across northern regions April 25–30
- 🌫️ Risk of delayed bloom development due to stress conditions
📉 Long-Term Outlook – Stocks & Production
| Season | Global Ending Stocks (MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 486,000 | — |
| 2022/23 | 450,000 | -36,000 |
| 2023/24 | 440,000 | -10,000 |
| 2024/25 (e) | 420,000 | -20,000 |
| Country | 2024/25 Production Forecast (in-shell, MT) |
|---|---|
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 675,000 – 720,000 (post-frost revision likely) |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 53,000 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 115,000 |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 65,000 |
🧠 Key Takeaways & Market Strategy
🔍 Key Highlights:
- Prices soared due to frost and speculation.
- Buyers act fast, sellers pull back.
- TMO nearly sold out, pushing prices further up.
- Currency devaluation offset by commodity price inflation.
🛒 Recommendations for Buyers:
- Secure available volumes promptly, especially 11–13 mm.
- Expect continued volatility until frost damage is confirmed in May.
📤 Recommendations for Sellers:
- Hold back if possible; buyers are active and ready to pay higher levels.
- Watch for quality risks in older TMO stocks.
