Turkish Hazelnut Market – Low Demand, Quiet Trade, and Growing Uncertainty Ahead of TMO Decision

Turkish Hazelnut Market – Low Demand, Quiet Trade, and Growing Uncertainty Ahead of TMO Decision

📍 As of early June 2025, the Turkish hazelnut market enters a phase of stagnation, with demand suppressed by public holidays in both Turkey and Europe. While raw material prices remained stable overall, seller expectations for 2025 crop levels remain high, which continues to deter forward contracts. The TMO has yet to announce a release strategy, adding to market speculation and tension.

---

📊 Price Overview (DDP Central Europe)

Product	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Δ	Comment
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (organic)	€9.74	-€0.07	Slightly down but still firm
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (conv.)	€10.95	-€0.04	Stable near €11
Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm	€12.33	-€0.03	Slight decline
Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm	€8.13	-€0.28	Notable drop
Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm	€7.44	-€0.31	Under price pressure
Hazelnut Paste	€7.25	-€0.22	Adjusting downward

📉 Market performance this week: 0.00% overall, but with softening across lower grades.

---

🔍 Key Market Observations

• The holiday impact reduced both local and export-side demand this week.
• TMO is still inactive, but rumours suggest potential action after Eid al-Adha.
• Contradictory forecasts: Some sources claim frost losses are smaller than expected; others point to more serious risks from stinkbug infestations.
• Price lists remain fragmented, driven by offers from three crop years, variable quality, and mixed storage practices.
• TRY depreciation continues, though the effect is marginal in EUR terms.

---

🌾 Crop & Outlook – Mixed Signals

• Market participants report strong divergence in views on the 2025 harvest:
  • Some say Frost was overestimated.
  • Others warn that stinkbug damage is underestimated, referencing Georgia’s severe experience with similar infestations.
• Exporters still include security premiums, which most buyers are currently unwilling to accept.
• Little new crop trade is occurring, but a short-term bump in prompt deliveries is possible as buyers seek to secure pre-harvest inventory.

📦 Export projection 2024/25: Estimated at around 320,000 mt, despite historically high prices.

---

🧠 Bullish vs. Bearish Factors

📈 Bullish

• Frost and pest-driven supply cuts may worsen.
• High production costs + farmer holding behaviour tighten supply.
• TMO may act with bullish pricing after Eid.
• No meaningful relief expected from alternative origins.
• Lower-quality kernels face high rejection and sort-out costs.

📉 Bearish

• Buyers are resistant to high forward prices.
• Spot offers include older TMO stock still influencing the market.
• Financial fatigue in trade circles + rising interest rates.
• The confectionery industry is facing weak demand and minimal tenders.
• Increased export competition and price pressure for small calibres and paste.

---

🔮 Market Outlook

Product	Short-Term Forecast (€/kg)
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm	€10.80 – €11.10
Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm	€12.20 – €12.50
Hazelnut Paste	€7.10 – €7.30

📆 Near-Term View:
➡️ Quiet conditions to persist through next week.
➡️ Market reset likely after TMO announcement or post-Eid reopening.

---

📌 Strategic Recommendations

💡 For Buyers

• Monitor prompt offers; evaluate quality closely before buying.
• Avoid bulk purchases until 2025 crop pricing clarity improves.

💡 For Sellers

• Hold if possible; forward pressure and TMO actions could push values back up.
• Segment pricing clearly between crop years and grades to protect margins.

---

📢 Need support with position timing or crop-year differentiation strategies? Let us know – we provide comparative lot tracking, tender strategies, and pricing models.

---

🎯 Why this format?
✔ Combines weekly price monitoring with agronomic & economic context.
✔ Decision-ready structure for procurement & sales managers.
✔ Highlights risks across both spot and forward horizons.

📅 Next key update expected June 17 post-Eid – covering early harvest assessment.