📈 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Soar Further as INC Estimate Sparks Controversy 📈
📍 As raw material prices reach 215 TRY/kg, the Turkish hazelnut market remains volatile ahead of the official INC crop estimate (expected May 10). While field inspections suggest up to 30% frost-related damage, rumours indicate the INC number may forecast a slightly below-average harvest of around 610,000 MT, contradicting local evidence. Meanwhile, exporters and buyers stay cautious, and farmers hold firm in their demand for 250 TRY/kg.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Hazelnut kernels
roasted, diced, 2-4mm
FOB 8.50 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
roasted, meal
FOB 7.20 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 9.83 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 10.40 €/kg
(from TR)
📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
| Product | Price (€/kg, DDP Europe) | Weekly Change | Quarterly | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (organic) | €10.33 | +7.12% | +20.59% | +24.67% |
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (conventional) | €11.94 | +7.12% | +20.59% | +24.67% |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €13.37 | +0.14% | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm | €8.97 | +0.33% | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm | €7.81 | +0.02% | — | — |
| Hazelnut Paste (medium) | €7.43 | +0.11% | — | — |
📈 TRY/EUR stable at ~43.5
📉 Export prices up, mainly due to raw material surge, not currency changes.
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
🔥 Tension Ahead of INC Estimate
- The field inspections report severe regional frost damage, especially in Samsun and Ordu.
- However, the rumoured INC estimate (610,000 MT + 150,000 MT carry-over) suggests a less severe impact, sparking confusion.
🚜 Farmers Hold Out for Higher Prices
- Farmgate price now at 215 TRY/kg, up from 205 TRY/kg last week.
- Farmers are targeting 250 TRY/kg, holding back stocks.
🏭 Trade Slows as Market Waits
- Very limited local trade; exporters struggle to find raw material.
- Buyers adopt the wait-and-see strategy, hesitant to accept sharply higher prices.
- Export offers show extreme price divergence, reflecting uncertainty.
🌍 Global Picture
- Georgia and Azerbaijan are expecting normal to slightly better harvests, providing minor relief.
- TMO remains nearly sold out – any release of residual stocks could briefly ease supply.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Product | Forecast Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm | €11.90 – €12.30 |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €13.30 – €13.70 |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.35 – €7.60 |
📌 Upside Risk: Strong – all eyes on INC announcement.
📌 Downside Risk: Possible correction if the INC figure leads the market to believe the frost impact was overstated.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)
📍 Current Situation:
🌡️ Temperatures range between 12–19°C.
🌧️ Scattered rainfall likely May 6–9.
🌱 Good flowering weather, but post-frost stress could still cause nut drop in May/June.
📉 Long-Term Outlook – Global Balance
| Season | Global Stocks (MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 486,000 | — |
| 2022/23 | 450,000 | -36,000 |
| 2023/24 | 440,000 | -10,000 |
| 2024/25e | 420,000 (est.) | -20,000 |
| Forecasted In-Shell Output (MT) | Preliminary Est. |
|---|---|
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 610,000 (rumoured) |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 53,000 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 115,000 |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 65,000 |
🧠 Key Takeaways & Market Strategy
🔍 Key Observations:
- Market frozen until INC clarity expected May 10.
- Strong speculative sentiment, but some doubt official estimates.
- Roasted and raw whole kernels leading price rally, while small processed grades lag.
📌 Buyers:
- Wait for the INC outcome before committing.
- Consider covering long-term needs early if prices jump post-INC.
📌 Sellers:
- Hold back if you can – supply tightness + speculation = seller’s market.
- Prepare to capitalise on further rallies, but also watch for potential corrections.
📢 Contact us for post-INC analysis, strategic offers, and positioning advice.
