Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Stabilise After Ministry Shock, Focus Turns to Export Union Forecast 

Turkish Hazelnut Market – Prices Stabilise After Ministry Shock, Focus Turns to Export Union Forecast

📆 Report Date: July 27, 2025 | Report No. 2025-26

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📊 Weekly Price Overview – Full Truckloads (DAP Central Europe)

Product	Price (€/kg)	Deviation from Avg
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (Organic)	€8.98	±0.38
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (Conventional)	€10.60	±0.60
Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm	€11.58	±0.56
Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm	€8.07	±0.43
Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm	€7.58	±0.73
Hazelnut Paste (medium)	€7.69	±0.39

📈 Market trend this week: +2.52%
📉 Quarterly trend: -2.62%
📈 1-Year: +23.9% | 3-Year: +41.1% | 10-Year: -6.92%

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📌 Key Market Developments

🏛️ Mixed Market Reaction to Ministry Forecast

• The Turkish Agriculture Ministry’s pessimistic harvest forecast triggered conflicting responses:
  • Some sellers increased prices or withdrew offers.
  • Others remained unchanged, creating market confusion.
• Despite this, raw material prices rose back to ~200 TRY/kg, though trading volume remains low.

🏢 TMO Reportedly Sold Remaining Stocks

• TMO is effectively sold out of old inventory. Exporters now control the remaining commercial stocks.

🔮 Export Union Forecast Due Next Week

• The official export union estimate is expected soon, but it may not add clarity.
• Early rumours suggest they might overstate the crop (~580,000 mt), increasing market scepticism.

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🌱 Crop Quality & Field Conditions

• Field inspections show elevated percentages of hollow or damaged kernels, especially from stinkbug and heat stress.
• 2025 yield expected <450,000 mt, excluding additional pest/drought risks.
• West Turkish regions already show visible heat damage.
• Quality losses are worse than last year, not just in quantity but in severity of kernel rejection.

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⚖️ Macroeconomic & FX Trends

• Turkish Central Bank cut interest rate from 46% to 43%, citing slowing inflation.
• The TRY lost ~1% vs. the EUR this week, continuing its downward trend.

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🧭 Bullish Market Factors

• Official government forecast as low as 435,000 mt → historically linked to record price years (e.g. 2014).
• TMO out of the market; exporters control price discovery.
• Financing costs and inflation continue to support high base prices.
• Low 2024 carry-over volumes; 2022 blends now dominate the low-price offers.
• The sorting capacity for highly damaged harvests may be insufficient.
• Alternative origins (Italy, Georgia) show signs of weather stress.

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🧨 Bearish Market Factors

• The market leader declared itself fully covered, reducing large-buyer demand.
• Speculation is costly: high interest + little incentive to hold stock.
• Chocolate demand is shrinking due to cocoa prices; expected -20% export decline YoY.
• Small calibres & paste prices capped due to ongoing 2022 stock dilution.
• Market confusion from exporters mixing crop years increases price transparency issues.
• Strong exporter competition and rejected stock re-entry pressure margins.

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📊 Supporting Charts – Page 5 Highlights

• The domestic farmgate price chart shows a TRY/kg spike beginning week 25.
• The DDP Europe chart shows the price bottom in week 23, followed by a sharp rise.
• The export volume chart shows momentum slowing; estimates revised downward.
• Hazelnut timeline positions this week as critical for quality and sorting capacity assessments.

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🔮 Outlook & Recommendations

Product	Forecast (€/kg)
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm	€10.60 – €11.00
Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm	€11.50 – €11.90
Hazelnut Paste	€7.60 – €7.80

📌 Key Outlook Points:

• Market stability is possible until the TMO minimum price decision, expected between July 26–August 11.
• Volatility is likely in August when export orders and early harvest quality reports arrive.

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✅ Recommendations

📦 Buyers:

• Expect high premiums on natural kernels with clean traceability.
• Cautious coverage for Q3–Q4 advised; spot volumes will tighten as heat/pest damage plays out.

📤 Sellers:

• Separate 2023 vs. 2024 origin lots explicitly.
• Be transparent on quality parameters—buyers increasingly request lab-tested batches.

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📢 Need Q4 booking advice, rejection scenario simulations, or TMO forecast analysis?
Our team provides harvest-linked models, processor benchmarking, and contract structuring support.

📆 Next Key Update: Early August – Minimum Price + Export Union Yield Release.