Turkish Hazelnut Market – Revised Yield Expectations Tighten Supply Outlook
📍 With renewed field counts revealing more severe regional crop losses, Turkish hazelnut sellers are adjusting upward. While raw material prices remained stable this week, this is likely temporary, as commission-based stocks must be cleared by end-May, after which a price surge is expected. Meanwhile, the Turkish Lira weakened by over 2%, but exporters absorbed FX effects to hold local prices stable, shifting upward pressure to European buyers.
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Hazelnut kernels
roasted, diced, 2-4mm
FOB 8.70 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
roasted, meal
FOB 7.20 €/kg
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Hazelnut kernels
natural 11-13mm
FOB 8.84 €/kg
(from TR)
Hazelnut kernels
natural, 13-15mm
FOB 9.43 €/kg
(from TR)
📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments
| Product | Price (€/kg, DDP Europe) | Weekly Change | Quarterly | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (organic) | €9.79 | -1.3% | +20.39% | +27.18% |
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (conventional) | €11.57 | +0.2% | +20.39% | +27.18% |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €13.38 | +0.6% | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm | €8.81 | +0.2% | — | — |
| Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm | €7.99 | +0.3% | — | — |
| Hazelnut Paste (medium) | €7.62 | +0.5% | — | — |
📈 Export prices edged higher despite TRY weakness, indicating price resistance in TRY terms.
📉 Local price pressure remains muted until commission clearance is complete.
🌍 Market Drivers & Trends
🔍 Crop Loss More Severe Than First Stated
- Samsun & Ordu expected to face 50 %+ yield loss.
- Trabzon, Giresun: Closer to normal, but still risk-affected.
- Western regions: ~20% drop, not unusual after strong 2024 yield.
💰 Market Sentiment Shifts
- Sellers are now unanimously raising prices for 2025 crop offers.
- €2/kg price spread across offers reflects wide market uncertainty.
- Offers below current levels have disappeared entirely.
📦 Commission Ware Impact
- By the end of May, unprocessed TMO or consignment stock will be liquidated.
- After that, new season price formation will begin, likely at higher levels.
💱 Currency Update
- TRY fell >2% vs. EUR this week.
- Exporters held EUR prices steady, implying local cost increases.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Product | Forecast Range (€/kg) |
|---|---|
| Raw Kernels 11–13 mm | €11.60 – €11.85 |
| Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm | €13.30 – €13.60 |
| Hazelnut Paste | €7.55 – €7.80 |
📌 Upside Risk: Strong – after commission clearance, sellers may act collectively.
📌 Downside Risk: Minimal – market now anticipates a poor harvest.
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)
📍 Current Situation:
🌡️ Daytime temps 18–24°C
🌧️ Isolated thunderstorms in eastern regions (Samsun/Ordu).
🌱 Field conditions favourable, nut set development ongoing.
🐛 Stinkbug activity increasing, pest pressure likely a Q3 concern.
📉 Global Crop & Production Outlook
| 2025/26 Revised Estimate (MT) | Crop (in-shell) |
|---|---|
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | Expected <600,000 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 102,000 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 120,000 |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 75,000 |
| 🌍 Ending Stocks | 389,000 (est.) |
📉 Global buyers expect no growth in consumption, particularly from Asia & confectionery sector.
🧠 Key Takeaways & Strategy
🔍 Summary:
- Revised orchard assessments show worse damage than the INC data suggested.
- All sellers are raising expectations to ~250 TRY/kg raw material price.
- Exporters and buyers await the market reset in June.
- FX remains stable, but pricing is no longer reacting to Lira shifts – TRY-based costs dominate.
📌 Buyers:
- Cover short-term needs before June volatility.
- Avoid exposure to low-grade small kernels – overhang risk from TMO stock persists.
📌 Sellers:
- Use the commission clearance period to consolidate.
- Prepare for a strong premium structure between whole kernels and broken grades.
