Turkish Hazelnuts Steady as New-Crop Harvest Advances

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are stable to slightly firmer into late August, with organic offers flat and conventional values edging higher on new-crop support. Calm weather in the Black Sea orchards and the recently set state floor price underpin growers’ resolve, while international demand remains cautious but steady. The Turkish 2026 harvest is progressing under largely dry, warm conditions in the main Black Sea provinces, supporting uninterrupted fieldwork and drying. Authorities have active harvest windows in place across mid and eastern Black Sea zones, and official weather data show late‑August temperatures in Giresun/Ordu mostly in the mid‑20s°C with limited rain risk, ideal for picking and sun‑drying. On the pricing side, the sharp year‑on‑year increase in the state hazelnut floor price and structurally tighter global 2025/26 supplies versus 2024/25 keep downside limited, even as international benchmark quotations have eased from their 2025 peaks.

Prices

FOB Turkish hazelnut kernel prices in EUR terms show a broadly stable pattern over August. Organic kernels from İzmir are indicated around EUR 18.30–22.80/kg FOB, while conventional Istanbul kernels trade near EUR 6.10–7.84/kg FOB, depending on size and processing. Recent moves suggest a mild firming in conventional roasted and meal categories and flat levels in organic kernels, consistent with a market that has digested the higher domestic floor price but is still gauging final crop size and export appetite.

These levels sit modestly above the indicative domestic in‑shell averages implied by recent TRY‑denominated farmgate and wholesale data, once converted to EUR and adjusted for shelling yield and processing margins. The current structure preserves a solid premium for organic and processed forms, while size differentials between 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm remain relatively narrow, pointing to balanced demand across size grades.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, the Turkish harvest window is now fully open in most coastal and mid‑altitude areas of the central and eastern Black Sea, with official controls running through late August in Giresun and Orta Karadeniz regions. Field reports and public imagery confirm active picking in mid‑August, suggesting that new‑crop volumes are steadily reaching processors. Mild, mostly dry late‑August weather further supports high kernel quality and efficient post‑harvest drying, reducing risks of mold and aflatoxin issues at this stage.

Globally, industry estimates point to a smaller 2025/26 world hazelnut supply compared with 2024/25, driven mainly by a normalisation of Türkiye’s crop after the very large prior season, partially offset by growth in Chile, the U.S. and China. While stocks remain adequate, the reduction in Turkish exportable surplus has tightened the balance sheet just as structural demand from confectionery and chocolate remains resilient. Consequently, exporters are reluctant to discount aggressively below the combination of the new domestic floor price and higher on‑farm cost base.

Fundamentals & Policy

The key fundamental anchor is the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) 2026/27 in‑shell hazelnut purchasing price, set at TRY 250/kg (around USD 6.25/kg) in early August, up roughly 28% year‑on‑year. This strong policy signal effectively floors growers’ expectations and raises replacement costs for exporters, helping explain the firmness in kernel offers despite softer international benchmarks compared with last year’s spike.

Internationally, the benchmark price for 11/13 FOB Turkish hazelnuts has fallen from a peak near USD 17.90/kg (in 100‑kg terms) in late September 2025 to about USD 8.50/kg as of early August 2026, marking a substantial correction but still above pre‑2024 levels. The current flat EUR‑based kernel offers in Turkey indicate that the market is now trading more off domestic policy and actual harvest outcomes than off speculative spikes, with buyers taking a more hand‑to‑mouth approach but facing limited downside from here unless the crop proves larger than expected.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (TR)

Weather forecasts for the core hazelnut belt around Ordu and Giresun show predominantly sunny to partly cloudy days with daytime highs around 24–28°C and moderate humidity through August 30, 2026, with only limited shower risk. Such conditions are ideal for sustaining the ongoing harvest and natural drying of nuts spread on patios, reducing the need for artificial drying and limiting quality losses.

Historically, hazelnut harvest in the Black Sea region runs from early August into early September, staggered by altitude. Given the current meteorological outlook, no major weather‑related disruption is expected in the coming days. This underpins a stable short‑term supply profile and reduces the likelihood of last‑minute weather premiums being added to FOB offers from Turkish ports.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

• For buyers: The combination of elevated domestic floor prices and solid fundamental support suggests limited room for substantial near‑term downside in EUR‑denominated Turkish kernels. Consider stepping in on minor dips or negotiating on processing premiums (blanched/roasted) rather than expecting large corrections in raw kernel values.
• For sellers/processors: With weather benign and harvest progressing smoothly, maintaining current offer levels for nearby positions appears justified. Forward coverage can be offered cautiously, but aggressive forward sales below today’s replacement cost look risky given tighter global 2025/26 balances.
• For end‑users: Given the correction from last year’s peaks yet strong domestic support, layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 at current EUR levels may be prudent, while keeping some flexibility for potential modest softness if export competition intensifies later in the season.

3‑day directional price indication (EUR, TR FOB kernels):

• Conventional natural kernels (Istanbul, 11–13 / 13–15 mm): Sideways to mildly firm over the next three days, with offers expected to hold near current 7.3–7.8 EUR/kg FOB as harvest flows meet measured export demand.
• Processed conventional (roasted, diced/meal): Slight upside bias, reflecting good demand from European confectioners and stable processing margins; premiums likely to remain intact.
• Organic kernels (İzmir, various sizes): Broadly stable; current 18–23 EUR/kg FOB range is well supported by higher organic production costs and niche demand, with no immediate weather or policy trigger for change through the weekend.