Turkish Seedless Sultana Raisins – 2025 Crop Market Outlook
📊 Review of Previous Seasons
- 2023/24 season: Production dropped sharply to 206,500 tons due to frost, powdery mildew, and adverse weather.
- Despite lower volume, exports still reached 207,000 tons with a record USD 490 million in revenues, supported by a 52% increase in unit prices.
- Between 2019/20 and 2022/23, exports consistently ranged 224,000–260,000 tons, generating USD 430–510 million annually.
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🌱 2025 Crop – Current Situation
- Production Estimate: Official forecast 164,180 tons, though recent favorable weather may push the realized crop slightly higher.
- Government: No procurement price or subsidy program announced.
- Tariş Cooperative: Advance purchase price set at 120 TL/kg for 9-number raisins; producers criticize as insufficient against rising input costs.
- EU Market Risk: 22 Turkish containers rejected earlier in 2025 due to pesticide residue and aflatoxin → stricter monitoring and compliance now in force.
- Policy Direction (2022–2026): Focus on pesticide control, product traceability, financial supports, and market diversification.
🌦 Crop & Quality
- Excellent weather conditions during the growing season.
- High-quality crop expected, with harvest already starting in several regions.
- Procurement and purchasing will intensify over the next 10 days.
💰 Price Outlook
- Given limited crop size and strong global demand, no price decline is expected.
- Market signals indicate a firm to strong pricing environment through the season.
- Exporters must remain attentive to EU compliance standards to avoid disruptions in key markets.
✅ Conclusion:
The 2025 Turkish sultana crop is expected to deliver exceptional quality but reduced quantity. Prices are likely to remain firm, underpinned by strong global demand and lower availability. Exporters should prioritize quality assurance and compliance to safeguard access to high-value markets, particularly the EU.
