Türkiye Crop Damage Report – Spring 2025

Türkiye Crop Damage Report – Spring 2025

Severe Frost Hits Fruit and Nut Production Across 65 Provinces

🧾 Summary

Türkiye faced three severe frost events in early 2025, damaging orchards and vineyards across much of the country. Key fruit and nut sectors are expected to experience production losses of up to 60%. Government support and insurance payouts aim to cushion the blow.

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🌍 Affected Regions & Timeline

Date	Region(s) Affected	Description
Feb 23–24	Adana, Mersin, Hatay	Frost in typically frost-free Mediterranean areas
Mar 21–22	Izmir region	Aegean coast – mild climate but frost hit vineyards & cherries
Apr 9–14	65 provinces	Nationwide event with 36 provinces hit severely

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📉 Crop Production Outlook – 2025 vs. 2024

Chart 1 (Page 3) shows a significant drop in fruit production:

• Fruit & juice: Down sharply
• Vegetables: Slight decline
• Grains/Plant products: Relatively stable

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🍑 Fruit Sector Impacts

• Apricots: Severe damage in Malatya
• Cherries: Up to 70% loss in Izmir & Afyonkarahisar
• Peaches: -50% in Bursa
• Apples: Production in Niğde, Karaman is likely below 350,000 tons (even lower than 2024)
• Pears: Bursa’s yield to drop from 250,000 MT to ~175,000 MT
• Grapes/Raisins: Damage in Manisa and Izmir (40% of production base), outlook unclear

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🍋 Citrus Sector Impacts

• Enterdonat & Kutdiken lemons: Major losses; long-term yield impact
• The government briefly banned lemon exports (April 8), then reversed the decision after backlash
• Forecasted losses:
  • Lemons: from 1.7 MMT ➝ 1.3 MMT
  • Oranges: from 1.6 MMT ➝ 1.4 MMT
• Export impact expected over several years

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🌰 Tree Nut Sector Impacts

• Pistachios: Up to 50% local loss ➝ National production down ~25%
• Hazelnuts: 20–35% loss in higher elevations of Samsun, Giresun, Ordu
• Walnuts: Estimated 30–45% loss
• Almonds: 30% loss in Adiyaman
• Multi-year impact on trees is likely

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✅ Less Affected Crops

• Cotton: Not impacted – planted later
• Wheat/Barley: No frost impact, but ongoing drought remains an issue
• Sugar Beets/Corn: Only minor localised damage in early-planted fields

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💬 Commentary

This spring’s weather shock underscores the vulnerability of Türkiye’s horticultural sector to climate volatility. Massive insurance payouts (₺21 billion/$536 / $536M) will help, but the medium-term export outlook is dim, especially for lemons, cherries, and pistachios. Price inflation in fruit markets is imminent, and long-term crop investments may be required to rebuild.

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🔭 Outlook & Strategy

• Short-term: Supply shortages in fresh fruit and nuts are expected by late summer. Price increases are likely.
• Mid-term: Exporters should adjust forecasts, especially for citrus and tree nuts.
• Long-term: Regional adaptation plans, frost mitigation technology (e.g. wind machines), and diversified orchard planting will be critical.

Source: USDA

 

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