Türkiye Grain Outlook 2025/26: Drought Hits Wheat & Barley, Corn Gains, Rice Under Pressure

Türkiye Grain Outlook 2025/26: Drought Hits Wheat & Barley, Corn Gains, Rice Under Pressure

Türkiye faces significant weather-induced production losses in wheat, barley, and rice. Corn stands out as the only major crop set to increase, thanks to irrigation access and strong market incentives. Wheat and barley imports are expected to surge, while rice and corn remain policy-sensitive due to tariff and supply considerations.

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🌾 1. Wheat – Production Drops Sharply, Imports Surge

Indicator	2024/25	2025/26 (Forecast)
Production	19.0 MMT	16.25 MMT ↓ -15%
Imports	3.2 MMT	10.25 MMT ↑ sharp
Exports (incl. flour/pasta)	7.0 MMT	7.0 MMT
Consumption	19.4 MMT	19.4 MMT
Ending stocks	3.3 MMT	3.4 MMT

• Dry weather in Central and Southeastern Anatolia leads to 15–30% yield losses in dryland areas.
• TMO raised wheat procurement prices: Milling wheat up 41% to 13,750 TL/MT (~$351).
• Import prices (~$240/MT) remain significantly lower than domestic.
• Flour exporters expect to regain lost ground after the easing of domestic sourcing rules.

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🍺 2. Barley – Major Weather Losses

Indicator	2024/25	2025/26 (Forecast)
Production	7.0 MMT	5.1 MMT ↓ -28%
Imports	0.15 MMT	1.6 MMT ↑ surge
Exports	1.4 MMT	0.1 MMT ↓ crash
Consumption	7.4 MMT	6.65 MMT
Ending stocks	437,000 MT	387,000 MT

• Drought and prior planting reductions contribute to the steep drop.
• TMO procurement price up 52%: now 11,000 TL/MT (~$284).
• Imports will rise sharply to cover feed demand.
• Exports collapse as domestic supply tightens.

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🌽 3. Corn – The Only Winner This Season

Indicator	2024/25	2025/26 (Forecast)
Production	7.1 MMT	7.9 MMT ↑ +12%
Imports	4.0 MMT	2.9 MMT ↓
Exports	0.6 MMT	0.6 MMT
Consumption	10.3 MMT	10.2 MMT
Ending stocks	799,000 MT	799,000 MT

• Area increases to 610,000 ha due to profitability vs. cotton/vegetables.
• 85% of use for animal feed, driven by poultry and livestock growth.
• Domestic price: 11,700 TL/MT (~$300); import CIF price: $255/MT.
• Main suppliers: Ukraine, Russia, Romania.

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🍚 4. Rice–Water Limits Hurt Production

Indicator	2024/25	2025/26 (Forecast)
Production	580,000 MT	543,000 MT ↓
Imports	425,000 MT	450,000 MT ↑
Exports	250,000 MT	250,000 MT
Consumption	810,000 MT	810,000 MT
Ending stocks	152,000 MT	85,000 MT ↓

• The Marmara region (60% of output) suffers from irrigation bans.
• U.S. rice faces 59% tariffs, reducing competitiveness vs. India/China.
• TMO retail prices: 61.5 TL/kg (Type A); lower grades: 43.5–48.5 TL/kg.
• The rice market remains heavily controlled by state and private stocks.

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🧭 Summary & Outlook

• Extreme weather drives production losses in Türkiye’s key dryland grains.
• Wheat and barley import needs surge, adding pressure on supply chains.
• Corn is expanding, supported by irrigation and feed demand.
• Rice remains stable in demand, but water shortages and tariffs complicate trade and production.
• TMO and government policy remain critical in managing imports, prices, and food security.

Source: USDA