Türkiye’s wheat imports in the 2023/24 marketing year, which began on July 1, will fall by 3.75 million tons, compared with 2022/23, to 8.25 million tons. This important forecast for grain trade participants is contained in the report of the US Embassy Ankara’s Agricultural Affairs Attaché, published late last week by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA). The decrease in imports is due to the better harvest (18.50 million mt vs. 17.25 million mt – 2022/23) and the build-up of beginning stocks of 4.2 million mt (2.2 million mt at the beginning of 2022/23).
“The historic winter drought and the duty exemption that lasted until May”
In 2022/23, Türkiye’s wheat imports stood at 12 million tonnes, an increase of 2.6 million tonnes on the previous season 2021/22. The main factors cited for the increase in imports in 2022/23 were “the historic winter drought and the duty exemption that lasted until May”. The main suppliers of wheat to Türkiye last season were Russia at 8.3 million tonnes and Ukraine at 3.2 million tonnes. Of this, 340 thousand tonnes were durum wheat and the rest milling wheat.
The report notes that Türkiye continues to be an important exporter of grain processing products. In 2022/23, exports of flour and wheat products are estimated at about 6.9 MMT (wheat equivalent), of which about 4.4 MMT is wheat flour, about 1.7 MMT is pasta, and about 300,000 MT is bulgur. Exports of flour and wheat products are projected at 7.25 MMT in 2023/24. Experts comment that Türkiye generally does not export wheat itself, except for transshipment. However, there is talk in trade circles that durum wheat exports may be allowed in the coming months.
Barley imports also will also fall
Türkiye’s barley imports in the 2023/24 season are expected to amount to 900 thousand tonnes, well below last year’s 2.14 million tonnes, of which 1.1 million tonnes supplied by Russia, 700 thousand tonnes from Ukraine and 120 thousand tonnes from Romania. The high level of barley consumption and imports last year was attributed to the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) feed industry development program. Experts are of the opinion that reduced imports in 2023/24 will not be a problem for the domestic balance. As in the case of wheat, it is expected that the record transitional stocks (732 thousand tons ) and the new crop of 7.8 million tons will cover the needs of domestic consumption and transshipment in the new season.
Türkiye’s corn production in the 2023/24 marketing year (October-September) is expected to increase by 1.2 million tons compared to the current season, from 6.8 million tons to 8.0 million tons. Increased domestic production logically implies a reduction in imports from the 2.5 million t expected for 2022/23 to 1.8 million t in 2023/24, a volume that the experts who prepared the USDA FAS report believe meets the country’s needs.