Türkiye’s Pistachio Crisis Fuels Volatility in Global Nuts Market: Supply Hits Historic Lows

The global nuts market has been jolted by unprecedented supply shocks, most notably from Türkiye’s vital pistachio sector. In 2025, Antep pistachio production—a cornerstone of the international nut trade—has plummeted by nearly 80% compared to the previous year, driven by a perfect storm of climatic adversity and production cycles. The season’s historic setbacks are attributed to a combination of a natural off-year in pistachio orchards and severe weather, including spring frosts and prolonged drought. Harvesting continues under grueling conditions, with temperatures exceeding 40°C, exacerbating the risks to both yields and worker safety.
Despite a surge in market prices—red pistachios fetching as much as US$15.75/kg—growers find little solace. Escalating input and labor costs have undermined profitability, forcing the sector to confront its long-term sustainability challenges. With orchards requiring up to three years to fully recover from frost damage, the risk of further market instability looms over both exporters and importers. As supply chains scramble to respond, consequent market dynamics are spreading into other nut varieties, impacting prices, inventories, and consumer access worldwide.

Market participants should brace for heightened volatility, rolling supply deficits, and a renewed drive for investment in resilience and efficiency across the nut sector.

📈 Prices

Product	Exchange/Market	Latest Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Pistachios (red)	Türkiye – Local	15.75	14.60*	+7.9%	USD/kg	⚠️ Bullish, supply driven
Pistachios (fresh red)	Türkiye – Local	10.40	9.80*	+6.1%	USD/kg	⚠️ Bullish, supply driven
Brazil nuts (medium, NL)	Dordrecht – FCA	6.58	6.58	0%	EUR/kg	😐 Neutral

*Estimated previous price based on pre-harvest quotes.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Türkiye pistachio output for 2025: Estimated at 25,000 tons—down from 118,000 tons in 2024 (–80%).
• Weather impact: Spring frost and drought are main culprits; orchards may need up to 3 years to recover normal yields.
• Local consumption: Tight supply has not significantly dampened local demand yet; however, prolonged high prices could trigger substitution effects or demand rationing.
• Export implications: Türkiye, a leading global pistachio supplier, will likely drop market share, shifting more global import demand toward US and Iranian origins.
• Other nuts: No current price movement in Brazil nuts (EUR 6.58/kg, stable), though upward pressure possible as buyers seek alternatives.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production drivers: Natural alternate (“off”) year cycle for pistachios, compounded by extreme weather.
• USDA & Industry reports: Signal sharply reduced Turkish output, potential for further downgrades if heat persists during harvest.
• Inventories: Exporters see tight ending stocks in Türkiye; Iran and the US expected to adjust export programs in response.
• Speculative positioning: Uncertainty around future harvests is fostering bullish sentiment among traders in specialty nuts.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Türkiye (Gaziantep/Southeast): Forecast remains hot and dry for the next 7–10 days, with highs of 38°C–42°C; no major rainfall expected. This spells ongoing harvest difficulties and little relief for drought stress.
• Main US regions (California): Normal late summer; some risks of isolated heatwaves but water supplies remain stable.
• Iran: Seasonal conditions expected; moderate outlook for next month.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Pistachio Production 2024 (‘000 tons)	Pistachio Production 2025 (‘000 tons)	Stock Trend
Türkiye	118	25	Sharply lower
Iran	110	120* (proj.)	Stable to up
USA	465	480* (proj.)	Rising

*Industry projections, subject to seasonal revision

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Turkish supply chain closely—spot shortages may create sporadic price spikes.
• For importers, consider pre-booking from US/Iran as Turkish availability weakens.
• Producers: Invest in climate-resilient farming and irrigation to mitigate future risk.
• Watch for substitution demand in almonds, cashews, and Brazil nuts as users seek alternatives.
• Expect ongoing upward price pressure in specialty nuts until supply recovers.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Product	Price Range (3-Day)	Currency	Direction
Türkiye – Local	Pistachios (red)	15.70–16.00	USD/kg	⬆️ Slightly Up
Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts (medium)	6.55–6.65	EUR/kg	➡️ Stable