Turmeric Market Faces Headwinds as Sluggish Demand Triggers Price Corrections

The global turmeric market is experiencing a period of correction following a modest rally earlier this quarter. Over the past week, both spot and futures turmeric prices in major Asian wholesale markets declined, reflecting a slowdown in purchasing activity by traders and processors. This price softening is also evident in the broader spice complex, with cumin registering similar declines as sentiment weakens across the sector. In key Indian mandis like Erode, sellers reported reduced transaction volumes as buyers take a cautious stance, largely awaiting clearer direction from both domestic and export channels. This wait-and-watch approach has kept daily arrivals at moderate levels, underpinning the broader uncertainty currently gripping the market.

Additionally, market fundamentals state that best-quality turmeric is now offered at slightly reduced levels, and premium varieties are not fetching the premiums observed just weeks ago. This weakening trend can be traced to tepid procurement, a lack of major export inquiries, and steadily improving supply flows as the peak harvest window concludes. Weather conditions across India’s major turmeric belt remain favorable, with rainfall supporting healthy crop maturation—a factor that keeps downward pressure on prices due to expected robust output. With analysts forecasting subdued sentiment unless export orders resume in strength, near-term trading is expected to remain under pressure. Market participants need to keep a vigilant eye on both domestic consumption cues and external drivers such as rainfall patterns, harvest progress, and policy changes in major consuming nations.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Quality	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change
Turmeric whole	India	New Delhi	Organic	2.60	2.63	-0.03
Turmeric powder	India	New Delhi	Organic	3.41	3.43	-0.02
Turmeric dried (Salem, Grade A)	India	Telangana	Non-organic	1.65	1.67	-0.02
Turmeric dried (Nizamabad, Grade A)	India	Telangana	Non-organic	1.54	1.58	-0.04

Market Sentiment: Bearish – ongoing price corrections, cautious trading, and moderate arrivals signal continued pressure.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Procurement activity remains sluggish as both traders and processors delay purchases.
• Bulk market prices have softened by $0.30 per kg, a sizable drop for this time of year.
• In key producing centers, good-quality finger turmeric is trading at $156–$158 per 100 kg, with medium grades between $150–$152 per 100 kg.
• Global demand is tepid amid lackluster export buying and moderate domestic purchases.
• Last season’s carryover stocks and healthy new arrivals are weighing on market psychology.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA and Indian crop agencies expect above-average output for 2024, supported by favorable monsoon rainfall.
• Indian turmeric exports are stable but have yet to show signs of renewed strength as importers defer large-volume purchases.
• Speculator interest has retreated, with futures falling by $1.20–$4.80 per quintal in recent sessions.
• The last turmeric market report highlighted tighter conditions and supportive demand, whereas the current scenario is dominated by oversupply and buyer caution.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Monsoon coverage remains strong in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, ensuring ideal crop maturation.
• No major weather threats are reported for the next 7 days.
• Continued favorable weather conditions are likely to support healthy yields, pressuring prices further during the main harvest arrivals.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023 Prod. (000 t)	2024 Forecast (000 t)	Stock Position (000 t)
India	1,215	1,280	220
Myanmar	127	132	21
Bangladesh	86	88	14
China	45	46	8

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Expect prices to remain under pressure until either export demand revives or arrivals taper off post-harvest.
• Procurement is best staggered; avoid large positions until signs of stabilization emerge.
• Monitor weather developments, as excessive rainfall could impact quality and shorten the window for price weakness.
• Exporters should secure contracts only on confirmed orders; processors may benefit from current lower prices for forward coverage.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Mandi	Region	Spot Price (USD/100 kg)	Expected 3-Day Range (USD/100 kg)	Direction
Erode	Tamil Nadu, IN	156–158	154–157	⬇️
New Delhi	Delhi, IN	157	155–157	⬇️
CBOT (Futures, synthetic)	Intl.	160	158–161	⏸️

Short-Term View: Slight downward movement likely as arrivals persist; bottoming out possible if export buying returns.