The turmeric market is currently navigating a period of relative stability, shaped by robust arrivals in key producing states such as Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Despite a solid supply base—with average daily arrivals between 50,000 to 75,000 bags—the market is experiencing subdued domestic and export demand. This has resulted in restrained price movement, with only minor fluctuations observed in both spot and futures markets. Notably, the supply pressure that characterized the earlier part of the season has started to ease, and arrivals in major markets like Sangli are only marginally lower than last year. However, the market is closely watching the impact of the festive season in North India, which is expected to boost domestic demand. On the supply side, a 10% increase in sowing area for the 2024-25 season has been countered by lower yields due to unseasonal rains, particularly in Maharashtra’s Nanded region, where yields are projected to fall by 10-15%. Export performance remains a bright spot, with shipments up 13% year-on-year for April 2024 to January 2025, despite a notable month-on-month dip in January. Imports have also surged, further improving domestic availability. Going forward, the trajectory of turmeric prices will largely depend on the pace of export demand and the evolving weather outlook for the next crop cycle.
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Turmeric whole
FOB 2.71 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric powder
FOB 3.52 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.71 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Location | Type | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole | New Delhi | Organic | 2.71 | 2.70 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Turmeric powder | New Delhi | Organic | 3.52 | 3.51 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Turmeric dried (Salem) | Telangana | Finger, double polished, Grade A | 1.71 | 1.69 | +0.02 | Soft |
| Turmeric dried (Nizamabad) | Telangana | Finger, double polished, Grade A | 1.66 | 1.63 | +0.03 | Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Good arrivals in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra; average daily arrivals 50,000-75,000 bags. Arrivals in Sangli (7 lakh bags YTD) slightly below last season.
- Production: Sowing area up 10% to 330,000 ha for 2024-25, but yield down 10-15% due to unseasonal rains, especially in Maharashtra’s Nanded region.
- Demand: Domestic and export demand remains weak. Festive season in North India expected to lift domestic consumption in the near term.
- Exports: April 2024–Jan 2025 exports at 149,000 tonnes (+13% YoY), but January 2025 exports down 23.17% MoM, still 12.2% above January 2024.
- Imports: Significant increase in imports, boosting domestic availability.
📊 Fundamentals
- Stocks: Ample inventories due to good arrivals and increased imports.
- Crop Damage: Unseasonal rains negatively affected yields, especially in Maharashtra.
- Speculative Positioning: Futures prices softened in line with spot market trends and weak demand.
- Seasonal Trends: Festive demand may provide near-term support; export demand is the key variable for further price improvement.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Recent unseasonal rains have damaged turmeric crops, especially in Maharashtra and parts of Telangana.
- Weather forecasts for the next week indicate normal to slightly above-normal temperatures in major turmeric-growing belts, with no major rainfall events expected. This should help in the post-harvest drying and storage process, stabilizing supply quality.
- Monsoon outlook for 2025 is yet to be confirmed; early indications will be crucial for sowing decisions and crop recovery.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023-24 Production (est. 1,000 MT) | 2024-25 Forecast (1,000 MT) | Stock Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,250 | 1,150 | -8% |
| Bangladesh | 150 | 155 | +3% |
| Myanmar | 80 | 82 | +2.5% |
| Other | 50 | 52 | +4% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term outlook: Stable with mild downside risk if export demand remains weak.
- Watch for festive season demand in North India; could provide a brief price uptick.
- Monitor export orders closely—any pickup could reverse current softness.
- Procurement recommended for spice manufacturers and exporters at current levels if export demand signals improve.
- Hedge long positions in futures if spot market weakness persists.
- Stay alert to monsoon forecasts for early signs of 2025-26 crop prospects.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole | New Delhi | 2.71 | 2.70 – 2.73 | Stable |
| Turmeric powder | New Delhi | 3.52 | 3.50 – 3.54 | Stable |
| Turmeric dried (Salem) | Telangana | 1.71 | 1.69 – 1.73 | Soft |
| Turmeric dried (Nizamabad) | Telangana | 1.66 | 1.64 – 1.68 | Soft |