Turmeric Market Treads Cautiously Amid Rising Supplies and Weak Demand

The turmeric market finds itself in a phase of persistent softness, weighed down by a combination of subdued demand and sustained, steady supply. Prices in major trading centres such as Nizamabad and Erode have slid slightly, currently trading within a narrow band of $159.52–$162.30 per unit (converted), and a weekly easing trend has set in. The slide is primarily a result of hesitant buying by stockists and retailers, with many anticipating further downside and thus holding off on bulk procurement. On the supply front, daily arrivals to key markets like Erode have increased from 1,600 to 1,800 bags, reflecting a healthy inflow that is meeting tepid demand with ease. Export orders from the Gulf and Southeast Asian countries remain limited, as stockists abroad work through existing inventories and cheaper competitor offers. In addition, unlike other agricultural sectors such as pulses, turmeric has not benefitted from any significant government procurement support.

All these factors have combined to keep the market well supplied. Unsold stocks from previous seasons are still available, and with the absence of strong export momentum, the market lacks any clear bullish catalyst in the near term. Unless arrivals decline sharply or a surge in export orders occurs, the current price trajectory is expected to remain range-bound with a slight bearish tilt. Support is likely to emerge near $156–$159, while resistance is seen around $165–$168. A more optimistic scenario might play out in September–October with festive season procurement or if export demand picks up, particularly if there is a further depreciation in the Indian rupee.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Product	Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Turmeric whole (Organic)	New Delhi, IN	2.63	2.62	+0.01	Neutral-to-Weak
Turmeric powder (Organic)	New Delhi, IN	3.42	3.40	+0.02	Neutral-to-Weak
Turmeric dried (finger salem, DP, Grade A)	Telangana, IN	1.67	1.66	+0.01	Soft
Turmeric dried (finger nizamabad, DP, Grade A)	Telangana, IN	1.59	1.58	+0.01	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Supply: Daily arrivals in Erode mandi up to 1,800 bags; steady supply flows keeping the market well-lubricated.
• Demand: Domestic masala manufacturers have slowed buying after stocking up ahead of monsoon. Export demand remains tepid, with key buyers in the Gulf and Southeast Asia yet to return to market.
• Inventories: High level of unsold stocks from previous seasons adding to overall availability.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• Concern about further price correction has made stockists and retailers cautious, holding back fresh deals.
• No government procurement drives in turmeric to support market, unlike pulses or cereals.
• Speculative buying is notably absent due to low market confidence.
• Prices are expected to find support at EUR 1.42–1.45/kg ($156–$159), with resistance near EUR 1.50–1.53/kg ($165–$168).
• Key driver for future price support may be festive season procurement (Sep–Oct) and/or uptick in exports if INR weakens.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: The current monsoon season has been largely normal-to-positive in key turmeric-growing regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, supporting crop prospects for the upcoming harvest.
• Short-term forecasts suggest adequate rainfall over the next 10 days, which should help maintain crop health and sustain supply flows; no major weather threats on horizon.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Production (est. ‘000 MT)	2023/24 Stocks (‘000 MT)	Export Share (%)
India	1,226	456	78
Bangladesh	166	45	6
Myanmar	97	18	2
Others	82	20	14

• India remains the clear global leader, both in production and stocks, shaping price discovery worldwide.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bears remain in control in the near term as supplies exceed demand and price sentiment stays soft.
• Short-term: Expect a range-bound to slightly bearish market unless there is a weather shock or export jump.
• Support seen at EUR 1.42–1.45/kg, resistance at EUR 1.50–1.53/kg ($156–$168 per current USD/INR rates).
• Watch for cues from INR—it could provide some export support if it weakens further.
• Replenish only as needed; no rush for bulk coverage until price triggers emerge (festive procurement, weather, or export orders).

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast by Key Region

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD)	3-Day Forecast (USD)	Sentiment
Nizamabad	159.52	158.00–159.50	Soft, Sideways/Lower
Erode	162.30	160.50–162.00	Soft, Slight Downside