The U.S. apple market is entering the 2025/26 season with optimism as production is forecast to reach 278.5 million bushels (11.7 billion pounds)—a 1.3% increase from last year and 3.6% above the five-year average, according to the U.S. Apple Association (US Apple). The outlook is driven by a blend of expanding production in leading regions and rising market values, especially in Washington, the nation’s dominant producer. Despite challenges in export channels and changing varietal preferences, apples remain a stable commodity with robust domestic consumption and a positive trade balance.
Consumer demand is gradually shifting toward premium varieties like Honeycrisp and Cosmic Crisp®, while classic staples such as Gala and Red Delicious maintain their foothold despite a slight softening in growth. Notably, production increases in Michigan and Oregon offset declines in New York and Virginia, signaling a dynamic regional landscape. With trade flows normalizing after recent contractions and weather conditions trending favorable for harvest quality, the apple market appears well-positioned to meet both domestic needs and global demand. Price patterns for processed apples (dried cubes) reflect slight declines compared to last month, suggesting sufficient supply, yet firm demand in the face of rising production costs and logistics complexity still anchor market sentiment.
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FCA 4.67 €/kg
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Apple dried
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FCA 4.60 €/kg
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📈 Prices – Current Apple Commodity Prices (EUR)
| Product | Type / Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple dried | Cubes 5-7 mm / CN | NL / Dordrecht | FCA | 4.70 | 4.75 | -0.05 | Stable / Slightly Bearish |
| Apple dried | Cubes 8-10 mm / CN | NL / Dordrecht | FCA | 4.60 | 4.65 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Apple dried | Cubes 10-12 mm / CN | NL / Dordrecht | FCA | 4.67 | 4.72 | -0.05 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Production: Nationwide apple production forecast up 1.3% to 278.5 million bushels for 2025/26, 3.6% above the five-year average.
- Regional shifts: Washington (+1%, 180m bushels), Michigan (+10%, 30m bushels), New York (-0.7%, 30.5m bushels), Pennsylvania (+2%).
- Variety trends: Honeycrisp, Granny Smith, Cosmic Crisp®, and Pink Lady show strongest growth. Gala and Red Delicious retain largest market shares but are trending lower.
- Exports: Down 5% year-over-year, yet the U.S. maintains a large trade surplus; fresh exports at 44 million bushels.
- Domestic demand: Remains firm, with shifting consumer preference toward high-flavor, premium-price varieties.
📊 Fundamentals: Key Data Table
| State | 2025/26 f’cast (m bushels) | YoY Change | Value (€) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 180 | +1% | ~2.1 billion |
| New York | 30.5 | -0.7% | – |
| Michigan | 30 | +10% | – |
| Pennsylvania | 10.5 | +2% | – |
| Oregon | 3.9 | +40% | – |
| Virginia | 2.75 | -50% | – |
| Other States | 17 | – | – |
| Total US | 278.5 | (+1.3%) | ~2.3 billion |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact Analysis
- Pacific Northwest: Recent weather updates indicate generally favorable conditions with adequate rainfall and moderate heat, boosting fruit sizing and minimizing drought stress in key Washington orchards.
- Great Lakes / Michigan: Reports show timely precipitation offsetting early season dryness. A warm, stable summer supports high-quality yields.
- Northeast (NY, PA): Above-average rainfall in July but mild temperatures help protect against sunburn and improve late-season sizing. Some localized hail risks, but minimal widespread impact expected.
Overall, current weather trends support continued above-average yields and good fruit quality in major producing regions for the upcoming harvest.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Situation
- The U.S. maintains its position as the second-largest apple producer globally, after China.
- Global apple stocks are tightening, with the EU and China reporting modest inventory drawdowns following heat stress and disease issues in 2024.
- Despite the U.S.’s steady export share, competition from Poland and Chile in global markets is increasing, particularly to Asia and the Middle East.
📆 Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Take advantage of above-average yields—consider forward contracts to lock in prices as spot market may experience modest seasonal declines.
- Traders: Stable to slightly bearish near-term sentiment for dried apple cubes; work inventory to optimize cash flow, but monitor fresh-market signals for late-season sales opportunities.
- Buyers/Food Industry: Take advantage of temporary price softness to secure contracts for processed forms, especially with transportation reliability currently favorable.
- Exporters: Monitor U.S. dollar strength and logistics costs—competitive pricing may pressure margins, especially in Asian and Middle-Eastern markets.
3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Dried Apple Cubes, NL Market, EUR)
| Date | 5-7 mm (€/kg) | 8-10 mm (€/kg) | 10-12 mm (€/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-15 | 4.68 | 4.58 | 4.65 | ↘ Slightly lower |
| 2025-08-16 | 4.68 | 4.58 | 4.65 | Stable |
| 2025-08-17 | 4.67 | 4.57 | 4.64 | Stable |
