U.S. Corn Futures Hit Multi-Month Lows – Rapid Planting and South American Supply Pressure Market

➡ U.S. Corn Futures Hit Multi-Month Lows – Rapid Planting and South American Supply Pressure Market

Corn prices collapsed on Monday as fast U.S. planting progress and upward crop revisions from Brazil drove prices to new multi-month lows. Euronext futures followed suit, falling sharply.

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The corn market extended its downward slide at the start of the week. Despite strong weekly export shipments, improved global supply outlooks and planting progress in the U.S. weighed on. Euronext mirrored the pressure from CBOT, with early delivery contracts posting notable losses.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
Jul 2025	446.50	−14.75
Sep 2025	432.75	−7.25
Dec 2025	443.00	−7.25

➡ The July contract fell to its lowest level in months, pressured by planting data.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	195.75	−3.00
Aug 2025	201.00	−2.00
Nov 2025	199.50	−1.75

➡ European contracts followed U.S. futures lower on global oversupply concerns.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🌱 U.S. Planting Progress (as of May 4):
  • 40% of corn area planted, 1 pp above 5-year average
  • Analysts expected 41%
  • Emergence at 11% (vs. 5-year avg. of 9%)
  • The weather outlook remains favourable, though brief rains are creating ideal soil conditions
• 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Raised Again (Celeres):
  • New forecast: 135.4 Mt, up from 134.6 Mt
  • Improved rainfall benefits the Safrinha crop
• 📦 USDA Export Inspections (week ending May 1):
  • 1.61 million tons exported
  • −3.5% vs. the previous week, but +24% vs. the same week 2024
  • Leading buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (557,095 t), 🇯🇵 Japan (433,524 t), 🇨🇴 Colombia (165,983 t)
  • Season total: 42.515 Mt (+29% YoY)

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 Midwest	Mostly dry	Planting is likely to accelerate
🇧🇷 Brazil	Recent rains helpful	Production outlook revised higher
🇦🇷 Argentina	Normal	Harvest progressing steadily

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🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Updated)

Indicator	Value	Trend
U.S. Planting Progress (May 4)	40%	Fast, slightly above average.
Brazil Crop Forecast (Celeres)	135.4 Mt	↑ Raised by +0.8 Mt
Weekly U.S. Corn Exports	1.61 Mt	Strong, up 24% YoY
Total U.S. Exports (2024/25)	42.515 Mt	+29% YoY
CBOT Jul Contract	446.50 ct/bu	Multi-month low

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🔻 Short-term pressure remains as fundamentals weigh heavily
• 🌱 Fast planting pace and improving global crops undermine support
• 📈 Exports remain solid, but not enough to offset oversupply fears

Strategy:

• Avoid long positions near-term unless technical support holds
• Consider reentry if planting slows or if export sales surprise on Thursday
• Monitor upcoming WASDE (next week) for global supply revisions

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 7–9)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔽 Bearish	Fundamentals and fund flows are negative
Euronext	🔽 Weak tone	Global pressure continues to weigh on Paris
Dalian	🔁 Neutral	Steady demand, no fresh signals

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