U.S. Corn Futures Soar on Lower Ending Stocks – EU Prices Fall After Tariff Pause

➡ U.S. Corn Futures Soar on Lower Ending Stocks – EU Prices Fall After Tariff Pause

U.S. corn futures surged after the latest WASDE report revealed significantly lower domestic ending stocks. In contrast, European prices fell as the EU paused tariffs on U.S. corn imports.

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Corn markets reacted strongly on Thursday to the USDA’s April WASDE report. Reduced U.S. ending stocks and continued planting delays pushed U.S. corn prices higher. Meanwhile, Euronext prices fell on news that the EU will suspend retaliatory tariffs, making U.S. imports temporarily cheaper.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
May 2025	483.00	+9.00
Jul 2025	488.75	+8.50
Dec 2025	454.25	+3.50

➡ Nearby contracts hit multi-week highs; long-term contracts followed more modestly.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	208.00	−2.25
Aug 2025	212.25	−2.00
Nov 2025	208.00	−2.00

➡ European contracts declined sharply after the EU postponed tariff measures against the U.S.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 📉 U.S. Ending Stocks Cut (WASDE):
  • Revised to 1.465 billion bu (−75 million bu vs. March)
  • Below average expectations (1.510 billion bu)
  • Driven by higher export demand; offset by lower domestic use
• 📦 USDA Export Sales (week ending April 3):
  • 785,583 tons sold – a 13-week low, but within estimates
  • Top buyers: 🇰🇷 South Korea (204,200 t), 🇨🇴 Colombia (196,700 t), 🇯🇵 Japan (180,800 t)
  • 2025/26 sales: 236,200 t, mostly to 🇲🇽 Mexico
• 🌍 WASDE Global Adjustments (2024/25):
  • Beginning stocks: +380,000 t → 314.33 Mt
  • Production: +930,000 t → 1.2151 billion t
  • Usage: +1.75 Mt → 1.24178 billion t
  • Ending stocks: −710,000 t → 287.65 Mt
  • EU production: ↑ to 59.31 Mt (↑1.31 Mt) – gains in 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇷 Croatia
• 📊 Export Forecasts Revised:
  • Higher exports: 🇺🇸 United States
  • Lower exports: 🇵🇰 Pakistan
  • Higher imports: 🇪🇺 EU, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇵🇪 Peru
  • Lower imports: 🇻🇳 Vietnam
• 🇧🇷🇦🇷 South American Crop Estimates:
  • Brazil (Conab): ↑ +1.98 Mt → 124.75 Mt
  • Argentina (Rosario): ↑ +4 Mt → 48.5 Mt
  • Buenos Aires Exchange: 49 Mt
  • Frost reported in western Buenos Aires province – damage under assessment
• 💶 EU Market Hit by Tariff Suspension & Currency:
  • EU suspends tariffs on U.S. corn imports
  • Stronger euro boosts import attractiveness
  • Euronext prices under pressure despite global supply tension

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Market Impact
🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt	Wet, continued rains	Planting delays, bullish short term
🇧🇷 Brazil	Stable, dry south	Yield risk persists
🇪🇺 Europe	Normal spring pattern	Mixed impact, favorable in west

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🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks – WASDE April 2025

Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Change	Ending Stocks (Mt)
🇺🇸 USA	389.7	—	55.2
🇨🇳 China	288.8	—	204.2
🇧🇷 Brazil	124.75	↑ +1.98 Mt	11.4
🇦🇷 Argentina	48.5–49.0	↑ 4 Mt	—
🇪🇺 EU-27	59.31	↑ +1.31 Mt	16.1
🌍 Global Total	1,215.10	↑ +0.93 Mt	287.65 (−710,000 t)

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📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)

Country	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25 (Est.)
🇺🇸 USA	354.2	383.5	389.7
🇨🇳 China	277.0	288.8	288.8
🇧🇷 Brazil	127.5	125.5	124.75
🇪🇺 EU-27	52.3	61.2	59.31
🇦🇷 Argentina	52.0	56.0	49.0

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 📈 Strong U.S. rally backed by WASDE, weather and a weaker dollar
• 🔻 EU market bearish short term due to tariff pause & firm euro
• 🔎 Watch for volatility ahead of weekend positions and frost damage reports

🧭 Strategy:
Hold long positions in near-term CBOT futures. For EU traders: wait for stabilization post-tariff suspension. Watch South American developments closely.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 12–14)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔼 Bullish	Strong fundamentals & technical breakout
Euronext	🔽 Weak bias	Tariff suspension & currency pressure weigh
Dalian	🔁 Neutral	Domestic demand steady, no shocks expected

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