UK Wheat Market 2025/26: Robust Recovery Faces Weather and Policy Risks

The UK wheat market is heading into MY 2025/26 with an optimistic rebound in production, following one of the weakest harvests in recent years. This recovery is mainly attributed to improved yields and an increase in planted area, with projections placing total wheat output at 12.8 million metric tons (MMT), up markedly from 10.95 MMT in 2024/25. Despite the uptick, the broader market remains under pressure from lingering high stocks, softer prices, and policy shifts. Farmers face mounting challenges, not only from narrower profit margins, but also evolving agricultural policies post-Brexit, reduced agri-tax reliefs, and uncertainty around environmental support schemes. Additionally, increased maturity in precision breeding and looming legislative changes around gene-edited crops in England may shape the longer-term supply landscape.

With ending stocks forecasted at 3.436 MMT and lower import needs thanks to stronger domestic harvests, the UK is less reliant on external supply, though price competition from major exporters like Ukraine and France continues to set a low-price tone. The market environment is nuanced: while demand for feed wheat grows, particularly as it regains share in animal feed rations, milling wheat supply remains sensitive to ongoing farmer protests and logistical issues. Feed barley’s role wanes due to shrinking malting premiums, while feed corn retains a strong position in the north. Weather remains the ultimate wild card; recent trends of increased volatility bring both upside and downside risks to final yields and quality. Strategic selling and storage decisions will be essential for producers looking to optimize returns in this complex market dynamic.

📈 Prices

Origin	Exchange/Location	Type	Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Date	Sentiment
US	CBOT	Protein min. 11.50%	0.24	+0.01	2025-06-05	Neutral/Bullish (seasonal recovery)
France	Paris	Protein min. 11.00%	0.28	+0.01	2025-06-05	Stable/Bullish
Ukraine	Odesa	Protein min. 11.00%	0.20	0.00	2025-06-05	Bearish (ample supply)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• UK Wheat Production: 12.8 MMT (↑ 17% y/y)
• Harvested Area: 1.63 million hectares (MHa)
• Imports: 3.05 MMT (significantly lower, as domestic supply recovers)
• Feed Use: 7.15 MMT (↑ bulking up in animal feed)
• Food, Seed, Industrial Use (FSI): 8.2 MMT
• Ending Stocks: 3.436 MMT (ample, could weigh on prices if demand falters)
• Feed Trends: Wheat regains market share; corn stays strong in the north; barley’s feed use decreases

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA Outlook: Grain production recovery led by wheat, creating upward pressure on stocks.
• Policy Changes: 2024 agri-tax relief reductions may incentivize early grain sales.
• Precision Breeding: England’s gene-editing reform to boost future yields, not likely impactful until MY 2026/27.
• Milling Wheat: Supply threatened by ongoing farmer protests, introducing potential market volatility.
• Global Competition: Ukraine and France continue to export at low offer levels, pressuring UK and wider EU prices.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money currently holds a largely neutral stance, with limited speculative upside due to high stock burdens globally.
• Bioethanol: Corn use in bioethanol contracts, but feed demand holds stable.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Recent Trends: The start of June 2025 is marked by below-average rainfall in key UK wheat regions (East Anglia, Midlands).
• Yield Risks: Dry weather could limit yield formation if it persists; UK crops generally prefer moderate moisture prior to grain fill. Ongoing dryness would impact both yields and quality grades.
• Watch Points: 3-day forecast calls for light, scattered showers but no soaking rain; moderate temperatures (18–22°C) will mitigate near-term stress but will not offset deficit if dryness continues.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country/Region	2025/26 Production (MMT)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (MMT)
European Union	132 (est.)	15 – 17 (est.)
Russia	86 (est.)	16 (est.)
Ukraine	25 (est.)	5 (est.)
US	52 (est.)	17 (est.)
Australia	29 (est.)	6 (est.)
UK	12.8	3.436

📝 Trading Outlook

• For Producers:
  • Consider forward sales for 2025/26 to lock in margins ahead of potential policy-driven harvest pressure.
  • Monitor weather closely; if June turns wetter, upside yield risks could pressure prices further.
  • Storage constraints may force sales post-harvest; consider collaboration on logistics and off-farm storage.
• For Buyers:
  • Plentiful supply creating favorable buying conditions—look for price dips linked to harvest or policy headlines.
  • Monitor farmer selling pace as an indicator of possible price floors.
• For Speculators:
  • Neutral to slightly bearish bias near term; high stocks and soft global demand limit upside.
  • Watch for volatility from weather events, especially in July/August during grain fill and harvest.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.24	0.23 – 0.25	Stable to Slightly Lower
Paris (FR)	0.28	0.27 – 0.29	Stable
Odesa (UA)	0.20	0.19 – 0.21	Slight Downside/Ample Supply