In the world of sunflower oil commerce, Ukraine, as the reigning monarch of production and export, experiences a graph of rise and fall in its recent export figures, unfolding a nuanced narrative with potential global repercussions.
In the month of October 2023, Ukraine witnessed a shipment of 4,07 million tonnes of sunflower oil, marking a modest increase of 50 thousand tonnes from the preceding month but trailing behind the robust 4,54 million tonnes exported in October 2022. These figures, as revealed by the New Delhi Custom Department, paint a canvas of fluctuation in Ukraine’s export performance. The cumulative export for the initial two months of the current marketing season (September-October 2023) stands at 7,64 million tonnes, signifying a 20 percent dip compared to the same period the previous year. This revelation carries substantial weight considering Ukraine’s prominence as the globe’s leading sunflower producer and primary exporter of sunflower oil.
Analysts speculate that the impending reduction in Türkiye’s import duty on sunflower, anticipated around February-March, might act as a catalyst, potentially revitalizing Ukraine’s export dynamics. However, it’s noted that the immediate demand for the next few months is likely to be met by crushers and processors in Russia, where a significant purchase of sunflower oil has been reported, fueling expectations of an uptick in exports.
Furthermore, there are emerging prospects for sunflower oil shipments from Russia to China, with container rates commencing at $885 or €811 per tonne. The crushing and processing activities in Russia are expected to drive a surge in sunflower oil exports in the upcoming months, backed by a favorable pricing differential between sunflower oil and soybean oil. Current market fluctuations suggest that both Russia and Ukraine may encounter minimal hurdles in expanding their sunflower oil exports. The offer price in Mersin stands at $870 or €798 per tonne, with analysts projecting a potential increase to the range of $1000-$1050 per tonne at six ports. Indian brokers have initiated offers at $935 or €957 per tonne.
However, challenges persist. Ukraine grapples with complications in exporting agricultural products, encountering delays and disruptions. A new payment structure implemented by Iran for oil imports from Ukraine adds another layer of complexity. The government’s restriction on export shipments of cash cargo since October adds to the woes, impacting both farmers and exporters, navigating the turbulent seas of global trade.
Import/Export Statistics
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